(WXYZ) - The successful “nerd” campaign advertising pitch is working. In a major turn of events, Ann Arbor businessman Rick Snyder has captured a narrow lead in the Republican primary race for Michigan governor. However, the potential for a photo finish is quite likely with Attorney General Mike Cox and West Michigan Congressman Pete Hoekstra close behind. An exclusive WXYZ – Detroit Free Press poll conducted by EPIC MRA for its statewide media partners has Snyder ahead by 2 points with 26 percent of the vote. Cox is in second place with 24 percent followed by Hoekstra with 23 percent. Oakland County Sheriff Michael Bouchard is in fourth place with 10 percent and State Senator Tom George of Kalamazoo is last with 1 percent. Fourteen percent are undecided.
Channel 7 pollster Bernie Porn believes Snyder’s 6 point increase from our June polling survey is due to “his heavy TV advertising, people like him, and his strong crossover appeal. If he were to win the nomination, he would be the toughest Republican candidate for Democrats to beat.”
Among the 400 likely Republican voters, 67 percent described themselves as pro-life, 26 percent are pro-choice, and 7 percent are undecided. Among pro-life voters, 22 percent say a candidate’s position on the issue will be a “deciding factor,” 39 percent say it will be “very important, but not a deciding factor,” 16 percent say it will be “somewhat important,” and 22 percent say it will “not be important at all.” Mike Cox received the endorsement of Michigan Right-to-Life but among pro-life voters he trails Pete Hoekstra by 1 point, 28 to 27 percent. Rick Snyder gets 19 percent.
When respondents were asked if the candidates’ positions on business issues will be a “deciding factor,” Snyder took the lead with 30 percent, followed by Cox with 24 percent, and Hoekstra with 20 percent. Across the state, Snyder leads among men, Cox leads among women, Hoekstra leads among voters who always vote in GOP primaries.
When the 400 likely Republican voters were asked how certain they were to vote in the August 3 primary, 44 percent said they were “very certain” and 44 percent said they were “somewhat certain.” This survey was conducted July 26 – 27, has a margin of error of plus or minus 4.9 percent.
Read the complete results below:
Now, I would like to read a list of names to you of political figures. For each name, please tell me if you recognize that person, and if so, whether your opinion of that person is favorable or unfavorable.
Andy Dillon
35% - Don’t Recognize
13% - Favorable
27% - Unfavorable
25% - Undecided
Michael Cox
5% - Don’t Recognize
50% - Favorable
31% - Unfavorable
14% - Undecided
Virg Bernero
48% - Don’t Recognize
12% - Favorable
23% - Unfavorable
17% - Undecided
Pete Hoekstra
13% - Don’t Recognize
52% - Favorable
20% - Unfavorable
15% - Undecided
Mike Bouchard
11% - Don’t Recognize
51% - Favorable
17% - Unfavorable
21% - Undecided
Tom George
55% - Don’t Recognize
12% - Favorable
10% - Unfavorable
23% - Undecided
Rick Snyder
22% - Don’t Recognize
48% - Favorable
10% - Unfavorable
20% - Undecided
If the Republican Primary election for Governor were held today, which of the following candidates would you vote for?
24% - Mike Cox
23% - Pete Hoekstra
10% - MikeBouchard
26% - Rick Snyder
1% - Tom George
14% - Undecided/Refused
How certain are you that you will vote for your preferred candidate – very certain, somewhat certain, or not certain at all?
44% Very certain
44% Somewhat certain
12% Not certain at all
Is there one specific issue or campaign message that your preferred candidate talked about, or some other reason, that influenced you to vote for him?
9% - Agree With Positions
9% - His Experience
8% - Business Background
8% - Not a Politician
6% - No – None
6% - Pro-Life
5% - Job Creation Policy
5% - Most Familiar With
4% - Best – Cleanest Campaign
4% - Conservative
3% - Economic Policy
3% - Honesty – Trustworthy
2% - Attorney General
2% - Endorsements
2% - Know Personally
2% - Strong Leader
2% - Tax Policy
2% - Values – Morals
1% - Confidence
1% - Ex-Military
1% - Government Spending Policy
1% - Gun Laws Policy
1% - Health Care Policy
1% - Law Enforcement Experience
1% - Most Favorable to Unions
1% - New Candidate
1% - Right to Work Policy
1% - Terri Lynn Land
2% - Other/Undecided/Refused to Answer
On the abortion issue, do you think of yourself as pro-choice, meaning that you support allowing women to have the right to an abortion, or do you consider yourself pro-life, meaning that you oppose abortions except where it is necessary to save the life of the mother?
26% - Pro-choice
67% - Pro-life
7% - Undecided/Refused
How much will a candidate’s position on the abortion issue influence which candidate you vote for in the Republican primary – will the candidates position on abortion be a deciding factor, will it be very important, but not a deciding factor, will it be somewhat important, or not really all that important?
22% - A deciding
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