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Home : News : Political :

EXCLUSIVE POLL: Convention bump helps Obama stretch lead over Romney

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Posted: 09/12/2012

By: Chuck Stokes

(WXYZ) - Aided by a boost from his national political convention, President Barack Obama is stretching out his lead over Mitt Romney in Michigan.

In an exclusive new poll conducted by EPIC MRA for WXYZ-TV, the Detroit Free Press, and our statewide media partners, Obama is beating the former Massachusetts Governor, 47-percent to 37-percent with 16-percent still undecided.

In a survey taken by our pollster right before the conventions, the President was leading Romney by only 3 points in Michigan.

According to Bernie Porn, President of Lansing-based EPIC MRA, “The Democratic Convention themes of saving the auto industry and 'Osama Bin Laden is dead' gave President Obama more of a boost from the voters than Romney received from the Republican convention. And former President Bill Clinton helped President Obama a lot by explaining the difference between the two candidates.”

President Barack Obama is also receiving significant support in Michigan from independent women who are backing him 42-percent to 25-percent. Among men, he is only ahead by 2 points.

Most of the people supporting Obama like what he has done to create jobs and address the health care issue.

Romney’s largest block of supporters are those who like what he says he will do to simulate the economy, create jobs, and reduce the federal deficit.

In the race for Michigan’s U.S. Senate seat, Democratic incumbent Debbie Stabenow has improved her lead over former West Michigan Congressman Pete Hoekstra by 11 points.

Forty-nine percent of the 600 survey respondents said they will vote for Stabenow, 38-percent will vote for Hoekstra, and 13-percent are undecided.

Bernie Porn believes the big difference is Super PAC advertising spending against Hoekstra. Porn also believes Stabenow may be benefiting from the bump received by President Obama following the convention.

Fifty-one percent of those polled think the United States is on the wrong track, 47-percent think Michigan is on the right track. Forty-seven percent still blame former President George W. Bush for the nation’s economy, 34-percent blame Obama, but a 53-percent majority think the President will win a second term in office when all is said and done.

The poll was conducted between September 8 - 11. It has has margin of error of +/- 4.0%.

READ THE COMPLETE POLL RESULTS BELOW

Overall, would you say that things in the United States are generally headed in the right direction, or, have things pretty seriously gotten off on the wrong track?

Right direction – 41%
Wrong track – 51%
Undecided/Refused to answer – 8%

How about in Michigan – are things generally headed in the right direction, or, have things pretty seriously gotten off on the wrong track?

Right direction – 47%
Wrong track – 42%
Undecided/Refused to answer – 11%

Now, I would like to read the names of several political figures. For each one, please tell me if you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of that person. If you do not recognize a name, please tell me and we can move on.

Barack Obama

Favorable – 52%
Unfavorable – 45%
Undecided\Refused to answer – 3%

Rick Snyder

Favorable – 45%
Unfavorable – 41%
Undecided/Refused to answer – 14%

Mitt Romney

Favorable – 44%
Unfavorable – 47%
Undecided\Refused to answer – 9%

Joe Biden

Favorable – 46%
Unfavorable – 43%
Undecided\Refused to answer – 11%

Paul Ryan

Do not recognize – 6%
Favorable – 37%
Unfavorable – 41%
Undecided\Refused to answer – 16%

Debbie Stabenow

Favorable – 46%
Unfavorable – 40%
Undecided\Refused to answer – 13%

Pete Hoekstra

Do not recognize – 12%
Favorable – 28%
Unfavorable – 32%
Undecided\Refused to answer – 28%

Overall, how would you rate the job being done by Barack Obama as President -- would you give him a positive rating of excellent or pretty good, or a negative rating of just fair or poor?

Positive – 46%
Negative – 54%

How would you rate the job Debbie Stabenow has done as Michigan United States Senator – would you give her a positive rating of excellent or pretty good, or a negative rating of just fair or poor?

Positive – 43%
Negative – 49%
Undecided\Refused to answer – 8%

How would you rate your personal financial situation these days -- good, bad, or somewhere in the middle?

Good – 31%
Somewhere in the middle – 51%
Bad – 17%

Thinking about this year’s November general election, how would you vote on the following matchups?

If the election for President were held today, would you vote for Mitt Romney the Republican or Barack Obama the Democrat?

Obama – 47%
Romney -37%
Undecided\Refused to answer – 16%

Barack Obama supporters:

Would you say that you are voting FOR Barack Obama, or, voting AGAINST Mitt Romney?

Voting for Barack Obama – 76%
Voting against Mitt Romney – 21%
Undecided\Refused to answer – 3%

Of the following issue areas, what stands out as the one most important for why you are voting Barack Obama?

What he has done

His approach to dealing with Medicare and Social Security – 20%
His position on addressing health care costs – 14%
His position on social issues such as abortion and gay rights – 11%
Positions he has taken on some other national policy issue – 7%
His view on taxes for individuals and businesses – 6%
The statements he has made and positions he has taken on foreign policy – 5%
His plan to reduce the federal budget deficit – 2%
Undecided\Refused to answer – 6%

How enthusiastic would you say you are in voting for Barack Obama -- extremely enthusiastic, very enthusiastic, only somewhat enthusiastic, or not enthusiastic at all?

Extremely enthusiastic – 40%
Very enthusiastic – 37%
Only somewhat enthusiastic – 20
Not enthusiastic at all – 2%

Mitt Romney supporters:

Would you say that you are voting FOR Mitt Romney, or, voting AGAINST Barack Obama?

Voting for Mitt Romney – 54%
Voting against Barack Obama – 43%
Undecided\Refused to answer – 3%

Of the following issue areas, what stands out as the one most important for why you are voting Mitt Romney?

What he has done or says he will do to stimulate the economy and create jobs – 51%
His plan to reduce the federal budget deficit – 17%
His position on social issues such as abortion and gay rights – 9%
Positions he has taken on some other national policy issue? – 5%
His approach to dealing with Medicare and Social Security – 4%
His position on addressing health care costs – 2%
His view on taxes for individuals and businesses – 2%
The statements he has made and positions he has taken on foreign policy – 1%
Undecided\Refused to answer – 9%

How enthusiastic would you say you are in voting for Mitt Romney -- extremely enthusiastic, very enthusiastic, only somewhat enthusiastic, or not enthusiastic at all?

Extremely enthusiastic – 24%
Very enthusiastic – 41%
Only somewhat enthusiastic -31%
Not enthusiastic at all – 3%

All respondents:

If the election for U.S Senate were held today and the candidates were Debbie Stabenow and Pete Hoekstra, would you vote for Pete Hoekstra the Republican or Debbie Stabenow the Democrat?

Stabenow – 49%
Hoekstra – 28%
Undecided\Refused to answer – 13%

In the end, who do you think will win the November election and be elected President, Barack Obama the Democrat or Mitt Romney the Republican?

Barack Obama – 53%
Mitt Romney – 30%
Undecided\Refused to answer -17%

Thinking about the current condition of our nation’s economy, who do you think is more responsible for the current condition of the national economy -- President Barack Obama and his economic policies, or, President George W. Bush and his economic policies?

Former President George W. Bush and his economic policies – 47%
President Barack Obama and his economic policies – 34%
Both equally – 9%
Neither – 7%
Undecided/Refused to answer – 3%

How much of the Republican National Convention, including Mitt Romney’s speech, how much of it did you watch on television?

All of it – 15%
Most of it – 18%
Only some of it – 36%
None of it – 31%

How much of the Democratic National Convention, including Barack Obama’s speech, how much of it did you watch on television?

All of it – 17%
Most of it 19%
Only some of it – 33%
None of it – 31%

After watching one or both conventions, or watching and reading news coverage about the two conventions, would you say the conventions made you more likely to vote for Mitt Romney or Barack Obama, or, would you say the conventions didn’t really influence you one way or the other?

Conventions didn’t influence – 63%
More likely to vote for Barack Obama – 23%
More likely to vote for Mitt Romney – 12%
Undecided\Refused to answer – 2%

Based on your personal experience or what you know or have heard or read, do you support or oppose the efforts of the Tea Party movement?

Support – 26%
Oppose – 44%
Undecided\Refused to answer – 20%

Finally, I would like to ask you a few questions about yourself for statistical purposes.

Do you think of yourself as pro-choice, meaning that you support allowing women to have the right to an abortion, or do you consider yourself pro-life, meaning that you oppose abortions except where it is necessary to save the life of the mother?