Exclusive Poll: Large lead for Snyder over Bernero in Michigan Governor Race

(WXYZ) - Michigan’s two major party gubernatorial candidates squared off Sunday night in their only scheduled debate. Businessman Rick Snyder entered that face-to-face contest holding on to a commanding lead over Lansing Mayor Virg Bernero.

This latest EPIC MRA poll released exclusively to WXYZ-TV and the Detroit Free Press has Snyder ahead of Bernero by 20 points, 49 to 29 percent, with 18 percent undecided. In September, Republican Snyder led by 24 points.

Although the race remains virtually unchanged, Democrat Bernero improved his statewide recognition from 81 percent in the September survey to 89 percent in October. Nevertheless, those numbers are counter balanced by his unfavorability rating which increased from 33 to 36 percent. Snyder also improved his recognition from 90 to 92 percent but his unfavorability rating increased from 16 to 20 percent.

The most surprising number in the survey is that Rick Snyder now leads Virg Bernero by 13 points among union members, 49 to 36 percent. In September, Snyder led by 11 points, 47 to 36 percent.

Channel 7 political pollster Bernie Porn described the race this way: “The mountain that Virg Brnero has to climb hasn’t gotten any smaller and he’s running out of time.”

One area where he won’t find a lot of help is among moderate Republicans who sometimes cross over political lines. Among our survey of 600 likely voters, Bernero only captures 68 percent of the Democrats compared to Snyder who enjoys support from 83 percent of Republicans.

Snyder leads among Independent voters by a 48 to 14 percent plurality. The self-made Ann Arbor millionaire also leads among pro-life voters, men , and college educated voters. Bernero enjoys his greatest support among voters under age 30.

The EPIC MRA polling survey was conducted October 3 – 7 and as a margin of error of plus or minus 4 percent.

See detailed poll results below:

 

Which one problem or issue are you personally concerned about the most?

58% Improving Michigan’s economy and creating jobs
12% Improving education and funding for public schools
8% Reducing state government spending
6% Making quality health care affordable and accessible
5% Keeping state taxes as low as possible
4% Addressing the abortion issue
3% Controlling crime and drugs
3% Protecting our air and water
0% Improving the quality of roads and bridges
1% Undecided/Don’t know/Refused

 

 

Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of the following political figures?

Barack Obama
47% - Favorable
47% - Unfavorable

Jennifer Granholm
35% - Favorable
58% - Unfavorable

Virg Bernero
27% - Favorable
36% - Unfavorable

Rick Snyder
42% - Favorable
20% - Unfavorable

 

 

Overall, how would you rate the job being done by Barack Obama as President -- would you give him a positive rating of excellent or pretty good, or a negative rating of just fair or poor?

13% Excellent
30% Pretty good
22% Just fair
35% Poor
0% Undecided/Don’t know/Refused

 

Over the past year, would you say that your household family income has increased, decreased or remained about the same?

2% Increased a lot
6% Increased somewhat
53% Remained about the same
23% Decreased somewhat
15% Decreased a lot
1% Undecided/Don’t know

 

 

In the race for Governor, if the election were held today, would you vote for Rick Snyder the Republican, Virg Bernero the Democrat, or a minor party candidate?

29% Virg Bernero
49% Rick Snyder
4% A minor party candidate

 

 

Snyder voters were asked: Have you ruled out voting for Virg Bernero the Democrat, and are pretty certain that you will vote for Rick Snyder the Republican, or, are you still considering Virg Bernero and might change your mind and vote for him?

72% Ruled out Bernero and certain to be voting for Snyder
28% Still considering Bernero and may change mind
0% Undecided/Don’t know/Refused

 

 

Bernero voters were asked: Have you ruled out voting for Rick Snyder the Republican and are pretty certain that you will vote for Virg Bernero the Democrat, or, are you still considering Rick Snyder and might change your mind and vote for him?

70% Ruled out Snyder and certain to be voting for Bernero
28% Still considering Snyder and may change mind
2% Undecided/Don’t know/Refused

 

 

Based on your personal experience or what you know or have heard or read, do you support or oppose the efforts of the Tea Party movement

23% Strongly supports Tea Party movement
21% Somewhat supports Tea Party movement
9% Somewhat opposes Tea Party movement
26% Strongly opposes Tea Party movement
21% Undecided/Don’t know/Refused

 

 

Do you think of yourself as pro-choice, meaning that you support allowing women to have the right to an abortion, or do you consider yourself pro-life, meaning that you oppose abortions except where it is necessary to save the life of the mother?

47% Pro-choice
48% Pro-life
5% Undecided/Don’t know/Refused