EXCLUSIVE POLL: Nancy Cassis, Fred Upton lead in closely watched Congressional districts

(WXYZ) - The race to replace former Livonia Congressman Thaddeus McCotter is lining up nicely for former State Senator Nancy Cassis.  Meanwhile the attempt to unseat a popular West Michigan Congressman appears to be failing.  

If the election were today, Nancy Cassis, who has lived in Livonia and Novi would win the 11 ^th Congressional District GOP primary against businessman and retired educator Kerry Bentivolio of Milford.  

Those are the results of an exclusive WXYZ-TV/Detroit Free Press poll conducted by EPIC MRA.   

With McCotter out of the race because of a massive amount of invalid petition signatures, Bentivolio is the only Republican on the ballot in a traditionally GOP district.  Cassis has to run as a write-in candidate because she entered the race late, after McCotter was disqualified and the filing deadline passed.

When our pollsters asked likely GOP voters how they would cast their ballot without mentioning the names of write-in candidates the results were as follows:

·         21% - Bentivolio

·         40% - “Someone else”

·         39% - Undecided

When our pollsters reminded likely GOP voters Cassis was running as a write-in candidate the results were as follows:

·         52% - Cassis

·         36% - Bentivolio

A key factor is name recognition and favorability.  “People have a high opinion of her,” said EPIC MRA President Bernie Porn. “And they are willing to go through the trouble of writing her name on the ballot.”

When our pollsters asked likely GOP voters about their impression of candidates the results were as follows:

·         60% - Favorable impression of Cassis

·         23% - Unfavorable impression of Cassis

·         41% - Favorable impression of Bentivolio

·         38% - Unfavorable impression of Bentivolio

Meanwhile the race for west Michigan’s 6 ^th Congressional District is on between veteran St. Joseph Congressman Fred Upton and former Michigan State Representative Jack Hoogendyk.

When our pollsters asked voters how they would likely cast their ballot the results were as follows:

·         56% - Upton

·         27% - Hoogendyk

Upton has been targeted by the Tea Party movement because of his moderate position on some issues.   After more than two decades in Congress, Upton’s chairmanship of the powerful House Energy and Commerce Committee, has given him a  67 percent favorability rating and has him comfortably ahead of Hoogendyk. 

The 6th and 11 ^th Congressional District surveys were conducted July 28 – 29 and have a margin of error of plus or minus 3.5 percent.