POLL: Romney Leads Michigan GOP, Gingrich Moving Up

(WXYZ) - If the Michigan Presidential Primary was held today, former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney would win with ease.  

But with the February 28 contest still more than two months away, the rest of the GOP candidates continue to play musical chairs trying to catch him.  

Former U.S. Speaker of the House Newt Gingrich is now the strongest challenger to Romney in Michigan.  In an exclusive WXYZ-TV Poll, Romney would win 34-percent of the vote compared to Gingrich at 20-percent and businessman Herman Cain at 13-percent.  

Romney has more support from younger Republican voters and Gingrich does well with older voters who are highly educated. Since only GOP voters can cast a ballot in the Michigan GOP Primary, it should be noted that the margin of error rate for this portion of the poll is 6.1 percent instead of the 4.0 margin of error for the overall survey.

Bernie Porn, President of the EPIC MRA firm that conducted the survey said, “Although Romney is in the lead, a significant number of Republican voters are searching for a candidate who could beat Romney in the state he grew up in.   Romney has increased his lead by 2 points since the last poll we took in August.”   

Since this past summer, Texas Governor Rick Perry and Minnesota Congresswoman Michelle Bachmann have dropped from double to single digits in Michigan.  

Out of the 600 people polled statewide, 72-percent said they watched the recent GOP Republican Presidential Debate that was held at Oakland University. Thirty percent said Mitt Romney won that debate followed by Gingrich with 19-percent.

Also, when respondents were asked if Michigan were on the right track, 33 percent said yes while 54 percent are convinced the state is headed in the wrong direction.

COMPLETE POLL RESULTS

Now, I would like to read the names of several political figures. For each one, please tell me if you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of that person. If you do not recognize a name, please tell me and we can move on.

Mitt Romney -

November:

• Favorable – 39%
• Unfavorable – 35%
• Undecided – 24%

October:

• Favorable – 40%
• Unfavorable – 34%
• Undecided – 24%

Newt Gingrich –

November:

• Favorable – 37%
• Unfavorable – 44%
• Undecided – 17%

October: Not tested

Rick Santorum –

November:

• Favorable – 15%
• Unfavorable – 21%
• Undecided – 25%
• Don’t recognize – 39%

October: Not tested

Herman Cain –

November:

• Favorable – 28%
• Unfavorable – 45%
• Undecided – 19%

October: Not tested

Ron Paul –

November:

• Favorable – 27%
• Unfavorable – 38%
• Undecided – 21%

October: Not tested

Michelle Bachman –

November:

• Favorable – 25%
• Unfavorable – 44%
• Undecided – 20%

October: Not tested

John Huntsman –

November:

• Favorable – 13%
• Unfavorable – 22%
• Undecided – 23%
• Don’t recognize – 42%

October: Not tested

Rick Perry –

November:

• Favorable – 19%
• Unfavorable – 47%
• Undecided – 20%
• Don’t Recognize – 14%

October:

• Favorable – 22%
• Unfavorable – 34%
• Undecided – 23%
• Don’t Recognize – 21%

Clark Durant –

November:

• Favorable – 4%
• Unfavorable – 11%
• Undecided – 24%
• Don’t Recognize – 61%

October:

• Favorable – 6%
• Unfavorable – 10%
• Undecided – 13%
• Don’t Recognize – 71%

On February 28 ^th of next year, the Michigan Republican Party will hold a closed presidential primary election to determine the allocation of delegates for each candidate to the National Republican Convention. In order to participate, voters would have to declare that they are Republicans. Democrats will be holding a caucus and not use the February 28 ^th election to select their delegates to their National Democratic Convention. Knowing this, what are the chances that you will be voting in the Republican Presidential Primary on February 28 ^th,2012? Are you very certain to vote, somewhat certain, will you probably vote, will you not likely vote, or will you definitely not vote in the February 28 ^th Republican Presidential primary election?

• Will Vote – 43%
• Won’t Vote – 51%

Well, if the primary election were held today and you had to decide right not, which candidate would you lean toward?”

November 2011:

• Mitt Romney – 34%
• Newt Gingrich – 20%
• Herman Cain – 13%
• Ron Paul – 8%
• Rick Perry – 5%
• Michelle Bachmann – 3%
• John Huntsman – 2%
• Rick Santorum – 2%
• Undecided/Refused to answer – 13%

August 2011:

• Mitt Romney – 32%
• Rick Perry – 17%
• Michelle Bachmann – 12%
• Newt Gingrich – 5%
• Ron Paul – 5%
• Herman Cain – 3%
• Rick Santorum – 2%
• John Huntsman – 1%
• Undecided/Refused to answer – 16%

Did you watch the Republican debate on television that was held on Wednesday, November 9 ^th, in Rochester Michigan at Oakland University, and was broadcast on CNBC?

• Yes – 28%
• No – 72%

Did you read newspaper coverage, watch TV news, listen to news on the radio or talk radio programs, get information from Internet sites about the debate, or, would you say you are not really informed much about what took place at the debate?

• TV News – 29%
• Newspapers