WEATHER BLOG: Doppler 7 Weather Team provides live weather updates

(WXYZ) - Our Doppler 7 meteorologists are keeping you informed with the latest weather updates right here on WXYZ.com.

You can follow this weather blog to get updated conditions.

Dave Rexroth, Sean Ash, Keenan Smith and Chris Edwards will all post updates to the blog.

Keep checking in for new posts.

April 26, 7:40 p.m. - Chris Edwards

The thunderstorms are taking their time getting into southeast Michigan, but the watch continues until 10 p.m.  Outside of the storms, strong south to southwesterly winds have been quite gusty this afternoon, with a gust estimated at 50 m.p.h. reported at 4:18 today in Allen Park.  Most gusts through the evening, outside of storms, should stay below 40 m.p.h.

Dewpoints have settled in the 50s, more humid than we've had for most of the srping, but not in the range of mugginess.  Still, any dewpoint close to or over 55 represents enough surface moisture to fuel severe storms.  There is shear with hegiht in the atmosphere this evening, with an elevated warm front to our north.  That is the main reason for the tornado watch.  The shear is enough to support tornadoes, but long-track, violent tornadoes don't look likely to me.

Late tonight, the remnants of severe storms now over AR, TN and MS could rumble into our area as mainly heavy rain producers.  But since we don't expect the cold front to clear us overnight, we could very well be in for another chance for severe storms on Wednesday, mainly in the PM hours.  Extensive cloud cover will reduce the de-stabilization needed for widespread severe storms, but if skies clear, and they could, the chance for severe storms will increase.

Stay tuned while Dave Rexroth and I keep you up-to-date through the time the cold front finally swings through on Thursday, putting an end to our heavy storm threat and potentially flooding rains.

 

 

April 21, 10:05 p.m. - Dave Rexroth

After a nice, well deserved, break today it is back to the clouds and rain chances tomorrow to finish off the week. The weekend will be about 50/50 in terms of dry weather. Saturday should be dry, breezy and warm with highs in the mid-upper 60s. The strong SW winds will be gusty up to 30mph. At about 4000-5000 feet winds will be around 50-60 mph. Some of that energy will mix down as the afternoon temps mix the atmosphere.

Sunday will have a 40% chance of showers. It looks like the best chance is in the morning. Sorry.

A wet pattern is around for at least the first half of next week and there could be some rough wtorms Tuesday pm and Tue. night.

April 19, 6:45 p.m. - Dave Rexroth

Could be a rough tonight in some areas as a strong system looks to go right over the top of us overnight. The greatest instability and energy with this storm will stay just to our south.  However, everyone should get showers and storms to move through.  A warm front moving in from teh southwest will allow winds to blow from different directions at different levels of the atmosphere.  This allows storms to rotate which is the precursor for tornadic storms.  The best opportunity for this threat is near the Ohio border.

The best timing for our severe threat is midnight to 5am Wed.  After that some leftover showers and storms will move out quickly Wed. morning.  The wind will be very strong on the back side of this storm through the day Wed. A tight pressure gradient plus cold air advection will create winds from teh west at 25-35mph and gusts to 45mph.

Don't forget about our severe weather special tonight at 7:30pm!

April 18, 10:10 p.m. - Dave Rexroth

Lots of action coming up through Wednesday night. Thursday could be calm and then right back into another active pattern through the weekend. Not much for the weather guys this week.

First tonight/Tue. morning. Moisture is increasing north of a stationary front tonight with lift increasing toward Tue. morning. A wind from the northeast will keep the lowest layers dry and allow for cooling when teh precip starts late tonight. That gives us a good chance for some more snow mixed with rain or freezing rain (depending on surface temps). There also could be a little sleet. Watch the roads through the rush hour Tue. am.

Late Tuesday night and very early Wed. morning could bring in a round of rough weather with thunderstorms that could have damaging winds. Tornadic activity is not out of the question either. Once the storms move by during the morning then a very strong wind will blow in colder temps.

March 24, 9:57 p.m. - Dave Rexroth

The cold tonight will be pretty nasty, especially north around the snow pack from the last storm. Lows around and north of I69 will be in teh single digits. Around the metro area we will bottom out in the teens with a low of 17 in Detroit tonight.

This is a january night no matter what the calander says. Make sure the kids are ready for the cold as they head out to school. They may fight you on it ( I have three of my own that do ), but layer them up. Maybe they will thank you later.....maybe. The weekend isn't much different. Lows will be in the teens and highs will be in the 30s.

March 23, 6:04 p.m. - Dave Rexroth

Some light freezing drizzle this evening and then a chance for some very light snow overnight are what's left of this latest winter storm........ yeah, I know. It IS Spring, right? Watch for slick spots tonight. The ramps and bridges are the best chance for icy areas.

March 23, 9:10 am - Keenan Smith

The center of this powerful winter storm continues to push east, bringing with it a huge supply of moisture from the Gulf of Mexico. This systems, held south by a strong area of high pressure center over the southern Hudson Bay will continue to bring a varied mix of winter weather for the atmosphere becomes cold enough to transition everything to snow.

Before this happens, we'll see a drop in temperatures and the potential for additional minor glazing of hard surfaces across the area. The winter storm, passing by south of the Ohio border, will turn winds across Metro Detroit easterly to the northeast. This will continue to feed colder air into Metro Detroit and allow temperatures to drop to freezing and just below across portions of Oakland, Wayne, Macomb counties up into the Thumb. This will allow for a few more slick spots and, potentially, a light glaze.

As we move on into the afternoon, the mixed precip will change over periods of light snow. Total accumulations south of I-696 will remain less than an inch through the overnight hours.

Between I-696 and M-59 accumulations of 1-2 inches of snow and sleet are possible through tonight.

North of M-59 we'll have a better chance of snow accumulations with 1-2 inches possible through the afternoon and evening, with another inch or so possible overnight.

March 23, 8:17 am - Chris Edwards

I just came in from I-696 and Lasher and feel very lucky.  I'm lucky because I didn't have to report on icy roads....they're just wet.  That may yet change later today, but this morning the worst complaint I could muster was that it was a bad hair day.  With relative humidity at 100%, winds gusting to 20 mph and drizzle and periods of rain, I need a bag to put over my head.

This storm is not finished with us yet, and will yet likely bring more difficult travel in spots, but MOST of the immediate metro are escaped the morning rush with no big travel troubles.

March  23, 7:10 a.m. - Keenan Smith

Elba, Lapeer County. 6.5 inches of snow on the ground with a glaze of ice on top. Radar estimates show up to 6-8 inches of snow across northern St. Clair and Sanilac Counties. South of I-69 snow fall totals drop down to 2-4 inches for southern Lapeer Counties.

March  23, 6:31 a.m. - Keenan Smith

Push of steadier rain working in along US-23. This line previous caried spotty thunder, but that activity has waned. Still some slick sopts, but temps are holding at or above freezing. Roads are mainly wet. Otherwise, cold and windy. Winds are gusting to 30mph. WInd chills are in the low 20;s.

March  23, 4:51 a.m. - Keenan Smith

Temperatures have held at and above freezing this morning and that has helped keep major icing to a minimum this morning. Periods of freezing rain, drizzle and even thunder will remain in the forecast this today. The rain/sleet line has lifted  into Central Oakland County... points south continue to recieve rain. Areas of all snow (mainly north of I-69) have picked up 4-7 inches so far.

March  22, 11:37 p.m. - Dave Rexroth

More rain, frz. rain, sleet and snow. Most of the snow will be around and north of M59. Temps will stay above the freeaing mark for most of the night around the metro, but should slip just below late making roads slippery. The iciest areas will be in Livingston, Oakland, and Macomb counties and north. There could be some slick spots south as well, but not as many.

The winter storm warning continues overnight and through Wednesday morning. With all of the action thunder is likely from time to time as well.

March 22, 8:29 p.m. - Dave Rexroth

First round of storm still moving through with most of the snow retreating a little back to the north through northern Oakland and Macomb counties. The heaviest snow now is in St. Clair Co. with heaviest sleet from Brighton to Flint and moving east.

Heavy activity is coming in from the wet side of the state. This batch will bring thunderstorms through from west to east between 10pm and 11:30pm. Temps may rise a degree or two, but raods may still be slick where the heaviest snow has fallen in the north.

March 22, 1:59 p.m. - Sean Ash

Dust off the scrapers and shovels (if you can find them)... ingredients in place for a rather messy night and Wednesday morning commute.

Unfortunately this is another one of those situations where the change in a couple of degrees or storm track shift (north or south) of a few miles could result in HUGE changes to outcome in any given area... and this forecast.

So it's important to know that various computer model quantitative precipitation forecasts remain constant in the .60" to .75" liquid output.  Meaning areas of all snow (10:1 snow to rain ratio) should expect at least 6"... possibly more due to thundersnow or heavy banded precip.  The "all snow" scenario best fits the region north of I-69 into the Thumb, which is why we're forecasting the heaviest snow here.

Our latest forecast, for areas south of M-59, hinges on precipitation to be in many forms... with rain and sleet being the dominant type.  With surface temperatures expected to drop to at least 32 (if not colder), accumulations of ice due to freezing rain are very possible on trees, powerlines and untreated roads/sidewalks.

March 21, 5:02 p.m. - Dave Rexroth

A long lasting wet storm moves in tomorrow and will last through Wednesday night. Lots of areas will get lots of rain(1" easily in some areas), but freezing rain, sleet and snow are POSSIBLE in most areas as well. South of I94 would see the least amounts of the winter precip while north of M59 is the area that has the best chance of getting winter precip. The areas in the far north that get only snow could get a lot. These areas of heaviest snow are most likely around and north of I69. The storm is in the Rockies now and we will get a better idea of the track and the type and amounts of precip you will get as the storm moves at us tomorrow. It will be a long lasting wet storm.

March 11, 7:24 a.m. - Keenan Smith

Snow totals for the storm Thursday night/Friday morning:

5.0"   Yale

4.5"   Algonac

4.0"   Romulus

3.0"   Sandusky

2.7"   Garden City

2.5"   Bloomfield Hills

2.4"   Dearborn

2.0'   Ann Arbor

1.6"   Howell

March 9, 7:53 p.m. - Chris Edwards

Fog will likely get dense in spots tonight, so take it easy.  Mild temps. over lingering snow pack with light winds........just about a perfect recipe for fog. 

When we get into the wraparound of this storm, we'll probably see some accumulating snow.  The 1" or so I'm calling for is during the later part of the daylight hours on Thursday.  We could get a little more after it gets dark on Thursday, especially in the northern reaches of the metro area.

On Friday, we'll all be very ready for some sunshine, but I think the clouds will hang on a little longer than some forecasts are calling for. still, eventually it should turn bright and get to at least 40, but it will be breezy.

March 9, 8:24 a.m. - Keenan Smith

Rain continues to fall across Metro Detroit, but warm surface temperatures are keeping most of the precipitation is in liquid form. This works just fine since colder temps would have meant icy commuting conditions. Temperatures will warm into the upper 30's and lower 40's this afternoon. A winter weather advisory is in effect for Sanilac County until 1pm.

March 8, 11:38 p.m. - Sean Ash

Another skating rink commute? Great question & a very difficult one to answer with a good deal of confidence. Certainly areas along/north of M-59 will be entrenched in deeper, colder air & have a greater chance of being sub-freezing long enough to allow for a coating on the roads. There's also a chance that snow/sleet could quickly accumulate (1"-3") before a transition to liquid precip.

South of M-59 it appears the window of opportunity for freezing rain will be smaller but still could be noteworthy if you're on the road the hour or two when the surface is 32° or colder.

In a nutshell this is another hair-pulling forecast... and a 1° or 2° difference either side of freezing will have some of you saying "what's the big deal" and others possibly going to school later than usual. Start-up time after 3am & FOR NOW metro Detroit should just be cold rain by 9-10am. Mixed precip & freezing rain may last into earlier afternoon north of M-59.   I'd suggest getting up earlier than normal & catch Keenan's forecast to see how everything evolved.

March 6, 1:25 a.m. Sean Ash

Quite a day and quite a winter!  A Saturday that began in the upper 40s in steady downpour, finished with a fresh 4" snowfall and snow-covered roads.

This latest snow pushes Detroit's season snowfall total up to 63.4" which is good for 10th place on the Top 20 snowiest season list.  It's interesting that 3 of the past 4 snow seasons are now in the Top 15 !  This season's dumping can be blamed on La Nina, which can be known for increased snow in southeast Michigan.  More than half of the 13 La Nina winters have resulted in snowier than normal February and March months.  

March 5, 9:25 p.m. - Sean Ash

What a truly bizarre day!  Saturday's high hit 46 w/ area rainfall reports within the forecasted range... most locations had .75"-1".  

The passage of a cold front ushered in the needed chill to switch rain to snow, and the slow pace of this system allowed for "training" snow bands.  This resulted in somewhat higher snowfall amounts, as it appears a blanket of 2"-4" will cover southeast Michigan... and locally higher amounts in the 5" range.

Regardless of how much snow your neighborhood picked-up expect a flat-out messy drive tonight and early Sunday.  As the left-over rain and puddles have easily frozen and are now snow-covered.  

This system turtles away overnight and snow tapers to flurries after midnight.  Fresh snow pack and a north wind keep Sunday temps chilly despite a brighter finish.

March 5, 9:20 a.m. - Chris Edwards

The rainfall overnight was on the lighter end of what Sean talked about, but still enough to cause localized flooding.  The flood watches continue until 7pm for people south of 8 Mile Road, and some river flood warnings also continue.  We're not out of the soggy woods yet.

It may take hours for the rain to change to snow, and a brief period of freezing rain and/or sleet could happen during the transition later today.  This is one of those days when the weather will likely be pretty different depending on where you are in the Detroit metro area, as cold air oozes in from the northwest.

Even if the 1"-2" of snowfall doesn't happen in your backyard, it will get much colder and breezy tonight.  And the sun will feel really good when it reutrns tomorrow.  I can't wait!

March 4, 6:41 p.m. - Sean Ash

Freezing rain to flooding rain?  That's the story this evening... the flood threat is very real with saturated ground (thanks to melted snow) and an easy .75"-1.50" of rainfall between 11pm-7am.  That's too much in a short period of time and that water will have no where to go.

Overnight street flooding is always dangerous because it's difficult to see... so please use caution if you have to be out before sunrise.  It appears this will be a widespread rain event that comes with the occasional rumble of thunder too. 

In fact, all of the southern half of Lower Michigan is under a Flood Watch for the scope of rain that occurs as a low pressure wave rides along a stalled front.  North of this boundary will be wintry precipitation... from the Thumb-Saginaw Valley-northern Lower.

South of this front temperatures stay well above freezing... with no threat of ice until after dark Saturday.  As Chris mentioned in his earlier blogs there will be a period of slushy snow to tune of 1"-2" (though most spots stay under 1").  Refreezing will likely cause more issues on the road Saturday night than snowfall... with any residual moisture on the roads likely to ice-up by early Sunday morning when lows back into the mid 20s.

March 4, 9:50 a.m. - Chris Edwards

Looking back on what I posted yesterday, it was indeed very light precipitation that moved through between about 4.a.m and 8 a.m., with most spots reporting between a trace of precipitation and .02" at the most.  But that was enough, falling on untreated roads, to cause major problems on major freeways as well as subdivisions.  When you're going 70 and hit a patch of ice, it doesn't really matter that it was light precipitation.  I don't think road crews were prepared for any freezing rain, and it was agonizing to watch one main band flare up and move northeast through the enitre metro area at basically the peak time of the morning rush.  As expected, some neighborhoods missed it completely, but if yours was one of them, you're having a lucky day.

Happy to put that in our rearview mirror, I'm now watching the potential for locally heavy rain tonight and possible pockets of flooding, especially around drainage clogged by ice.  Late tonight into early Saturday morning, this could come with some claps of thunder and flashes of lightning.

Then later on Saturday, as temperautres fall on the back side of the storm, rain should change to snow.  We could get up to 1"-3" of snow, though the slush shouldn't accumulate to that depth in too many spots because the ground will be warm.

I know I will look forward to seeing the sunshine return on Sunday.  March is a month when you have to fasten your weather seat belt around here.

Go out there and do what today's date says we should do.... "March forth!"

 

March 3, 9:15 a.m. - Chris Edwards

It does look like temperatures will be below freezing when the potential for precipitation enters our area in the wee small hours of Friday morning.  But it's looking more and more like there's so little moisture likely to reach the ground that it won't much matter.  I still think we could see some spotty light freezing rain, but it should be light enough to keep things from getting too slick on surfaces around here.  It could miss your neighborhood completely.

The Saturday forecast is much more interesting, as the front will bisect southeast Michigan, leading to significant temperature difference in short distances.  Most of us will probably see cold rain, which could briefly come down heavily and trigger very localized flooding problems.  But toward the end of the day, we could mix with and change to snow, which could accumulate Saturday night before ending Sunday morning.  One of our computer models prints out a Saturday high of 40, and another says it will get to 55.  I'm happy to say that that kind of disparity in them is rare.  If you've had your fill of snow already this winter, root for the latter (the NAM if you're following along at home).  Stay tuned...

March 1, 6:45 p.mp. - Dave Rexroth

Still not much to write about for a while. Eventually that has to change, right? Right. That time is late Thursday night into Friday morning. It looks like that time period may be getting wet, but not wam enough to keep us away from some icing potential. The warm front pushes through as Friday wears on, but the morning commute could be a slippery slope.  It is a long way from now, but there isn't much to talk about until then.

March 1, 12:53 p.m. - Chris Edwards

At the risk of sounding like someone's mom, "Don't forget your sunglasses!"  With the sun bouncing off the snow cover we still have, it's even more necessary than in the summer (water and bare ground absorb more of the sun's rays).  There will be more c louds to block the sun tomorrow.

I'm getting a little concerned about Friday morning getting a slick for awhile.  It looks a little more likely that Friday's precipitation will start as a mix of snow and freezing rain before enough warm air gets in here to turn it over to all rain.  Dave and I will take a look at the newest model data this afternoon and have more later today.

Feb. 28, 4:15 p.m. - Dave Rexroth

February was the snowiest Feb. in over one hundred years. We came in second all time for snowfall in Detroit with 31.8". Very impressive for sure, especially when you think about it being such a short month.  After all of that March looks like it will come in like a lamb. We should have three days here with dry weather and lots of sunshine. Tomorow morning and Thursday morning will be pretty cold in the teens, but the sun will make it very bearable. More warmth coming at the end of the week, but with rain.

Feb. 10:20 p.m. - Sean Ash

For a change it's thunderstorms and not thundersnow!  Heavy boomers will impact areas along/south of I-696 the next several hours... riding along a stalled, storng warm front across the Michiana border.

South of this front is 55 to 65 degree warmth, while our viewing area is sharply colder in the mid 30s.  However, it is warm enough from the surface to aloft to support liquid precipitation for all of metro Detroit.

Rain is dominant precip type until the 3am-5am timeframe, when a transition to a wintry mix can be expected along/north of the I-69 corridor.

Feb. 26, 11:15 p.m. - Sean Ash

The snow that seems to never want to end continues at this hour... and it appears will hold it's own overnight.  Albeit light, I think combined with areas of fog will be enough to keep roads slick.  Reports of black ice are all over the metro area.

Temperatures remain below freezing until 9am-10am, and actually climb well into the 30s Sunday afternoon.  We're still on target for heavy rain and thunder late Sunday night/early Monday morning.  Flooding concerns grow as temps climb into the 40s, and rainfall in the .50"-1" range.

Feb. 9:10 p.m. - Sean Ash

Quite an evening around southeast Michigan.  Not much snow in the immediate metro area, but numerous reports of accidents/slide-offs due to both a coating of snow & freezing fog... which is causing black ice area-wide.  Expect roads to remain hazardous tonight and early Sunday with temperatures staying below freezing.

Farther north of Detroit is where the heavier accumulations occured, with generally 1"-2" along the M-59 corridor & a healthy 2"-4" along I-69.  A stubborn, slow-moving low pressure system is still over-achieving and dropping steady snow over southeast Michigan through midnight.  

Additional accumulation will range from a dusting around metro Detroit, to possibly an additional 1" in heavier bursts between Flint and Port Huron.

Feb. 26, 6:35 p.m. - Sean Ash

Getting 1"-2" reports from Flint to Capac and radar trends showing snow axis stalled along I-69 corridor.  So looks like 2"-4" for Genesse, Lapeer and northern St. Clair counties.

Dusting to 1" south of I-69 to M-59, less than 1" south of M-59 to I-94... and snow show is essentially over for areas south of I-94.  

Feb. 26, 11:33 a.m. - Sean Ash

Snow is quickly increasing along the I-696 & I-94 corridors... which is an axis of lift across southeast Michigan.  This will serve as a catapult for snow this afternoon and into this evening, though it appears this axis should slowly lift northward over time.

For now I'm expecting a 1"-2" accumulation around the metro area, and slightly higher in the 2"-3" range along/north of I-69... providing the best lift area pushes north of Detroint.  If not, the somewhat higher totals can be expected.

A decent surge of warmer, moist air gets underway later Sunday and combined with low pressure will deliver a round of heavy rain to southeast Michigan.  A half-inch to nearly an 1" of liquid is likely with this system... and thunder is also in the in the cards.  

Feb. 25, 12:32 p.m. - Sean Ash

Kudos to Dave Rexroth and Keenan Smith for nailing the forecast with this system.  Dave made a some adjustments prior to the 11pm show for 3"-5" for metro Detroit... 1"-3" for the M-59 corridor... and the highest amounts for the southeastern part of the viewing area.

That's essentially how it played out, with mostly 2" amounts in central Oakland/Macomb/St. Clair counties.  The official total at metro airport was 3.3" which pushes the season snowfall total over 58"!  This is 24" above normal and good for 19th place on the snowiest seasons for Detroit.

More importantly the monthly total is now 31.1"... the 2nd most snow in February for Detroit and highest total since 1908!  What a month and what a winter. 

Feb. 25, 8:44 a.m. - Sean Ash 

Snowiest February since 1908!  It's now the 2nd snowiest February on record for Detroit.  As of 8:30 a.m. this morning, Romulus airport picked-up 2.5" boosting the monthly total to 30.3"... good for 2nd place behind the 38.4" from 1908.

Steady, light snow continues at this hour but still fully anticipate this wrapping-up well before midday.  Additional accumulation most likely east of US 23 where another half-inch is possible.

Feb. 25, 7:24 a.m. - Sean Ash

Snow continues though the heaviest is out well over Lake Erie... and I fully expect snow to taper-off quickly as strong storm system races toward northeast.

Snowfall reports so far are generally in the 2"-3" range, with Monroe (as expected) the near 5"-6".  Additional accumulation of an 1" can be expected and roads will be slick until and numerous accidents have been reported.

There's hope for a few peeks of sun later this afternoon, and the stinging wind will also relax as the storm's center departs the Ohio Valley.

Feb. 25, 6:17 a.m. - Sean Ash

Heaviest snow currently over Grosse Pointes-downtown Detroit, Romulus, Ann Arbor, Monroe, areas along/south of 402 in Ontario.  Basically east of US 23 and south of I-696 get brunt of snow next couple of hours before intensity sharply drops off by 9am.

Wait until then if your in those areas to shovel... speaking of it's going to be an easy snow to shovel.

 

Feb. 25, 5:40 a.m. - Sean Ash

Radar still showing healthy deformation snow across southeast Michigan.  Already picking up 1"-2" reports from St. Clair Shores, Saline, Rome, Kingsville (Ontario), Westland, Novi.  

However, snow is quickly shutting down across NW Livingston/Oakland counites... this trend will continue to the southeast the next 3 hours.  

Feb. 25, 4:53 a.m. - Sean Ash

Just like... boom!  Moderate snow outside Broadcast House within 10-15 minutes after starting.  Radar indicates a nice mesoscale (locally intense) across Oakland & Macomb counites... with snow widespread across southeast Michigan.

Now until 9am will be heaviest stretch, which doesn't bode well for getting to work on time unless you're leaving early.  

Live update on 7 at 5am and Keenan Smith will have a radar update from inside the studio.

Feb. 25, 4:11 a.m. - Sean Ash

Don't be shocked if there's no on your driveway right now.  Radar trends suggest the stubbornly dry air is beginning to saturate... and snow will quickly engulf southeast Michigan.

Heavy snowfall rates in the .50" to 1" per hour are very possible, allowing accumulations to build rather quicly from now until 9am.  Get ready for a white-knuckle commute, with wind-blown snow... low visibilities and snow-covered roads.

Still expecting highest snowfall accumulations to occur over Lenawee/Monroe counties and into southwestern Ontario (south of the 402).  This is where 5"-6" accumulations are likely.  

Feb. 23, 10:44 p.m. - Dave Rexroth

Latest information is showing a trend to push the Thursday night/Friday storm a little closer to us. That would mean more snow than previously thought. You should stay with Channel 7 and keep it right here on WXYZ.com to get the latest updates on snowfall totals. I am not going to change upgrade them just yet, but that may have to happen soon. Will wait for a littl more info overnight. The center of the storm is just now forming over the Texas panhandle.  We'll see if it can really kick this far north.

Feb. 23, 6:44 p.m. - Dave Rexroth

A good chance of some light snow and possibly some light freezing rain or freezing drizzle mixed in. It won't be a lot. Total accumulations from midnight through tomorrow morning should be around 1" or less. Roads could be slick through the rush hour.

Temps will start the night in the mid 20s, but should rise slowly overnight. Highs tomorrow will be in the mid 30s, but will be around or below freezing for the morning rush.

The next system moves in quickly overnight Thursday and through Friday morning. This should be all snow with 2"-3" from M59 to I69 and 4"-5" south of M59.

Feb. 22, 10:40 p.m. - Dave Rexroth

After a very cold night with some areas outside the city going just below zero we get into a very busy weather pattern. Storms moving through our area with regularity through the first half of next week will bring mostly snow, but a few chances of freezing rain are not out of the question. The first "little" system is Wed. night into Thursday morning. Precip won't be terribly heavy, but could include one of those chances for some freezing rain Wed. night.  The much stronger system for Thursday night and Friday morning is trending south of us with the heaviest snow.........Stay tuned!

Feb. 22, 4:17 p.m. - Sean Ash

ICE BOX cold tonight! Deep snowpack + clear sky/light wind = rapid heat loss after sunset. Detroit bottoms-out around 5 w/ the M-59/I-69/US 23 corridors plummeting below zero. Off for a couple of days... just enough time to catch my breath before barrage of storms eye the Great Lakes.

Speaking of:  we may narrowly the brunt of the 1st storm Thursday Nigh-Friday... with the heaviest snowband possibly in between the I-80/I-70 corridors across Indiana and Ohio.  Stay tuned as this is just one of many storms to impact Great Lakes over next couple of weeks.

Feb. 22, 10:41 a.m. - Sean Ash

Good morning sunshine! Plenty of blue in the sky and white on the ground which is perfect recipe for a FRIGID night. Detroit tanks well into the single digits and suburbs likely go zero to subzero w/ the deep, fresh snowpack. Newest models just coming in & I'll give you my thoughts on Thur. night-Friday scenario at midday.

Feb. 22, 8:42 a.m. - Chris Edwards

Today will be cold but turning bright.  Temperatures will really crater tonight...if skies can stay mostly clear (a few clouds could wander overhead), some of the traditionally colder outlying areas could get below zero tonight.

I'm really watching the next strong system coming at us from the southwest.  The models overnight still lack consensus, but the driest of them (mainly the GFS) seems to be the outlier.  There's growing agreement otherwise, and in my mind, that Thursday night into early Friday will likely bring us another significant snowfall.  I wouldn't be shocked at 6" accumulation if we can stay all snow through the event.

All we need is a little less than 2" to make this our second snowiest February on record, and I think that is likely.  Another way to look at it, which may or may not console you, will be to say to your grandkids, "I got through the snowiest Febraury around here since 1908."  By next Tuesday, I think we can start saying that, even if we don't have grandkids yet.

Feb. 21, 8:37 p.m. - Dave Rexroth

The Winter Weather Advisory has been canceled for Lenawee and Monroe counties. There will still be some periods of snow across SE Michigan, but there shouldn't be any more than about 1" overnight. The best chance for that much snow will be around and south of M59. Wind chills will be a few degrees either side of zero.

Feb. 21, 4:34 p.m. - Sean Ash

Say it ain't snow!  Right on cue with my earlier post, snow is breaking out across the I-94 corridor.  Granted it's very tame compared to Sunday's HUGE dumping... but not exactly what the icy Lenawee/Monroe counties exactly need.

We're still expecting a widespread 3"-4" south of I-94, with 1"-3" potential for Washtenaw and Wayne counties. 

As of now the month of February checks-in as the 6th snowiest February on record... and depending on the outcome this evening it could potentially climb into the Top 3.  Dave Rexroth has you covered this evening and I'm interested to see if my neighborhood got plowed today.

Feb. 21, 12:11 p.m. - Sean Ash

Snow fatigued?  Rhetorical question I know, and unfortunately some of us will be shoveling new snow by this evening.

A ripple of low pressure riding along a stalled front to our south will send another surge of moisture into the southern-half of Lower Michigan.  Though a dry northeasterly wind will do a decent job eating-away at this plume before it makes it to the surface... it does appear snow will reemerge for areas south of I-696.  

In fact, closer to the moisture source a solid 3"-4" accumulation can be expected for Lenawee and Monroe counties... not great news for an area that took the brunt of the icing!

I'm calling for a 1"-3" accumulation for Wayne and Washtenaw counties, and a dusting to 1" for Oakland, Livingston & Macomb counties (though areas south of M-59 could be higher).

FYI: 12z GFS model shows storm tracking to our south later this week.  Waiting on the latest Canadian and European model outputs to see if this is a trend.

Feb. 21, 6:55 a.m. - Chris Edwards

As Sean and I said several times over the weekend, a couple of degrees and/or 20-30 miles can make a huge difference.  We ended up about 2 degrees F cooler, both at the surface, and most importantly, about 3,000 feet up in the sky, than we had been expecting.  What that meant for most of us was that instead of getting several inches of snow and then a changeover to freezing rain and sleet, it just kept snowing, and snowing, and snowing.

While it is dissappointing on one level that the forecast didn't work out as well as I'd like, a 2 degree difference is within the margin of error of what can be expected of meteorology when predicitng days, or even just hours in advance.  A storm this complicated and tricky cannot be forecast flawlessly by any computer or person, or even a team of dedicated meteorologists like the Doppler 7 Storm Team.

Everyone following us was informed starting Friday morning that a significant storm was on the way, and Sean made nimble and spot-on changes as the system set-up over the top of southeastern Michigan on Sunday afternoon.  If it had been 2 degrees warmer a couple of thousand feet up, we would be dealing with thousands of homes without power because of an ice storm.  As challenging as it might be to have to shovel several extra inches of snow this morning, remember that it is a lot easier to deal with than a thick coating of ice.  You can't push that stuff off the road nearly as easily, and when I look at it that way, I'm not disappointed at all. 

Feb. 21, 5:20 a.m. - Keenan Smith

The broad shield of heavy, steady snow is tapering off across Metro Detroit this morning, but the damage is done. This storm has dumped 6-10 inches of snow across much of the area, leaving roads snow covered and, in some spots,  ice coated. As my colleagues Sean Ash and Chris Edwards have been forecasting all weekend long, snow totals are lighter in Monroe and Lenawee Counties due to periods of freezing rain and sleet mixing in overnight. Again, the heavy snow is tapering off across the area.

Feb. 21, 1:54 a.m. - Chris Edwards

Sean had a tough time getting home because of all the snow on the roads, and it took me 30 minutes to shovel out my driveway.  As he astutely predicted, a solid 7"-10" blanket of fresh snow lies across the heart of metro Detroit this morning, with the highest snow totals coming in from Wayne, Washtenaw, Oakland and Macomb counties.  Farther south, sleet and freezing rain has kept totals down.

There is a band of heavier snow and freezing rain that will move through the heart of the metro area between now and about 3:00 - 3:30 a.m..  After that, it looks like things will ease up, at least for a couple of hours.  Another wave of snow may get here in time for the AM rush, but that time frame is going to be SERIOUSLY altered by what's already on the ground.

Additional pre-dawn accumulations shouldn't be more than 1"-2" of snow, or perhaps .10" of freezing rain in Lenawee and Monroe counties.  This storm will wind down during the early part of today.

Feb. 20, 11:52 p.m. - Sean Ash

Well this storm truly is proof that "a few degrees and 10-20 miles" do make a MAJOR difference in outcome.  Slightly colder set-up essentially kept the sleet south of I-696... allowing the heaviest snow to be displaced from the M-59/I-69 corridors down into the heart of metro Detroit.

Thundersnow also boosted snowfall totals a great deal.  Speaking of... it appears a solid 7"-10" will end-up being totals over metro area. 

I'm off to shovel, sleep and head back Monday midday.  Keenan Smith and Chris Edwards will take you home the rest of the way.

Feb. 20, 8:38 p.m. - Sean Ash

Radar trends showing mesoscale band (area of intense snow) setting up over M-59 in Livingston/Oakland counties.  Surface data and reports indicating transition to sleet underway along I-94 corridor.

Upping" snow totals to account for what's on the ground and what's left to occur... with a thinking that wintry mix makes it to Detroit. Up to 8" for the city but areas of no mixing a lock for 8"-10"+ mainly north of I-696. Heaviest icing will occur south of 96. Any thundersnow/sleet will lead to higher totals. Doing my best to keep up...thank you all!

Feb. 20, 7:04 p.m. - Sean Ash

THUNDERSNOW baby! Numerous reports around the metro area & definitely puts higher snowfall totals into play. Bottom-line if you have thunder OR your area never mixes to sleet a good chance you'll wind up at 8". Sleet/freezing rain already icing up Lenawee/Monroe counties...big question remains how far north does the mix make it?  I-696 may become the breaking point as opposed to M-59.  Stay tuned.

Feb. 20, 5:28 p.m. - Sean Ash 

Putting finishing touches on forecast: looking like in between the M-59/I-69 corridors will be snow sweet spot of 8"+. South of M-59 to I-94 up to 6" including Detroit w/ sleet/freezing rain needed for this number. Up to 4" south of I-94 w/ icing. .25"-.50" of ice still very likely between the I-96 & 94 corridors. Getting ready for 6pm

Feb. 20, 3:51 p.m. - Sean Ash

Steady moderate to heavy snow quickly piling up around the viewing area... with reports of 2" Ann Arbor and near 3" in Manitou Beach where precipitation has transitioned to freezing drizzle.  So no doubt the 2"-4" by 6pm will be easily achieved... and higher in spots.

The snow-mixed precip line is currently south of I-94 but creeping north.  Obviously where it stops is difficult to say, but it still appears I-96/M-59 will be breaking point where precip type remains all snow.  Areas north of M-59 will solidly get 8" and maybe more of snow.

Extremely tough call on snow amounts south of M-59 depending on northern extent of warm layer to switch snow to sleet and/or freezing rain.  So going to put metro Detroit snow totals into the 4"-6" range... and still thinking heavy sleet/freezing rain will make for icy conditions.  

Stay tuned... as a few degrees and 10-20 miles make a huge difference in this storm.

Feb. 20, 2:02 p.m. - Sean Ash

Moderate to heavy snow burst continues to creep into metro Detroit... and snow will accumulate quickly next couple of hours.  This is such challenging forecast, and I'll be honest I've been conservative on the snow amounts.  Depending on transition time to sleet/freezing rain (and location) I may need to up totals slightly for all areas. We're getting into Nowcasting time so expect fluid changes next 24 hours.

Also, one model shows a wave developing along stalled boundary to our south Monday evening that could drop another healthy shot of snow Monday night-early Tuesday (3"-5"?).  Buckle-up for what promises to be wild ride next few days!

Feb. 20, 1:16 p.m. - Sean Ash

My colleagues prior post essentially nailed everything on the head.  Easily an 1" of liquid within this strong, moisture-laden southwest flow... that's tapping the Pacific as well as the Gulf of Mexico.

Snow has already started in Jackson, Adrian and Toldeo... and will continue marching northeast the next several hours.  As Chris mentioned, if you live along I-69 be patient the snow will get there.  In fact I-69 may become the snow "sweet spot" with this event where it should remain all snow... and a solid 6"-8"+ looks likely,

South of I-69 will become the transition zone, and the most challenging part of the forecast.  This area has a much higher chance for ice/sleet accumulations, after a burst of heavy snow this afternoon. 

Stay tuned continuous updates.

Feb. 20, 9:47 a.m. - Chris Edwards

This storm looks a little more foreboding every time I take a fresh look.  The latest model guidance is consistent if not a little heavier in putting out storm QPFs (total melted precipitation equivalents) at just over 1" by dawn Monday.  The models also initialized the atmosphere a little warmer than it actually was, meaning the cold air is a little more entrenched than they thought.

What that means to our forecast is that unless you can see the Ohio border from your house, and you plan to stay up all night watching for it, I wouldn't expect any liquid rain to fall from this storm.  We'll either get snow, freezing rain or sleet out of this.

Working from the north down, I think 8" or more is a good bet from the I-69 corridor on north.  Between I-69 and about I-94, snowfall and ice accumulation will vary wildy, with a general 3"-6" of snow and sleet by 7AM Monday, but with .25" to as much as .40" of freezing rain coating things as well.  This is very close to criteria for and Ice Storm Warning, and it wouldn't shock me to see one issued some time tonight by the good folks at NWS.  South of I-94, it will likely be 2"-4" total of snow/sleet combined with freezing rain totals toward the higher end of that range (.40") more likely.

This much ice will bring down some hefty branches and very likely lead to power outages.  You can bet the power companies have brought in extra crews, and I think they'll be needed. 

Sean and I will watch it and keep you updated all day long.  Remember, if you live in St. Clair county or somewhere close, don't freak if it's not snowing yet by 3:00 p.m.  It will take awhile for the leading edge to move from southwest to northeast across our region.

Those are my thoughts as of this minute, but once the flakes, pellets of ice and drops of freezing rain start falling, things could change very fast, and probably will.

 

Feb. 19, 9:27 p.m. - Sean Ash

Just looked over 00z NAM model data... and like prior runs continues to show robust moisture dropping over Lower Michigan.  Quantitative Precipitation Forecast (QPF) values have been consistently in the .60"-1" range, which suggests areas of that remain all snow should receive well over 6".

A decent of period of heavy sleet/freezing rain knock those values down significantly... the million-dollar question is how far north does the mixed precip line make into the viewing area?   For now it appears M-59 may be the cut-off though subject to change.  So northern Oakland/Macomb/Livingston and most of St. Clair/Lapeer counties get the heaviest snow.

Accumulating sleet and a .25"-.50" of ice are still in the forecast for metro Detroit as I full expect the Winter Storm Watch to be upgraded by the time Chris Edwards hits the air Sunday morning at 6am.

Timing of onset of snow still looks to be midday.  This is still a very changeable forecast and will continue to be that way through the duration of the storm.

Feb. 19, 4:05 p.m. - Sean Ash

So long sunshine... and I hope you enjoyed it!  Winter weather quickly returns Sunday with burst of snow developing around noon.  Detroit-northward should get 2"-4" by 7pm, slightly lighter amounts south of I-94 where the mixing occurs sooner.

Heavy snow potential exists for the I-69 corridor for the entire 24 hour duration.  Icing is a BIG concern now for the I-96/I-94 corridors, with a .25" to up to .50" of ice possible by 7am Monday. 

Very changeable forecast and conditions from north-to-south across southeast Michigan.

Feb. 19, 6:40 a.m. - Chris Edwards

Do not forget your sunglasses today.  The peksy winds will be dropping off as we move through the day, but at least it will be bright.

My kids are bummed that most of the snow melted, but they smiled when they heard my forecast for Sunday.  It will start snowing around lunchtime tomorrow, and a few inches are likely before it starts to mix with sleet and freezing rain.

Monday morning could be a sloppy mess, with snow probably still faling for the morning rush.  But my kids will be doing all their homework this weekend, because I am NOT predicting a snow day on Monday.  Still, I think some kids will be sleeping with spoon under their pillows Sunday night.  It couldn't hurt.

Feb. 18, 5:52 p.m. - Dave Rexroth

Rocks in your pockets tonight. The Wind Advisory until 2am is for Oakland, Macomb, and Livingston counties, but all areas will be very windy tonight. Gusts will go to 45mph

Attention!!!  Sunday is a stormy day. Just as you got rid of most of the snow..... IT'S BACK!  Snow moves in midday from the southwest and right now it looks like it will snow through the afternoon. Most areas expecting 2"-4" with some spots that could be up to 5".  The lightest amounts should be around I69 and the heaviest amounts should be around I94 up to 696. Sharpen the blade on your shovel Saturday.

Feb. 16, 4:08 p.m. - Dave Rexroth

Yesterday I had to fight with my high school son about wearing shorts. Today I just let it go. He will be alright in shorts for the rest of the week. You have to pick your battles, don't you? Temps in the 50s tomorrow and Friday. Temps may fall in the afternoon Friday.

Feb. 15, 5:28 p.m. - Dave Rexroth

Temps in the 40s tomorrow and then in the lower 50s Thu. & Fri.  Remember over the holidays when the snow just disappeared so quickly? Won't be much more left by the time we get to the weekend. Warmth plus some wind and a rain chance should take care of most of it. Watch your basements for water and the small stream and rivers.

Feb. 14, 8:15 p.m. - Dave Rexroth

Lots of back and forth with temps over the next 7 days. tonight down through the teens as the wind dies off. Strong sun tomorrow will help us bounce back to at least the mid 30s. Then it is 40s for Wed. and Thu. and we have a shot to get to 50 on Fri. Next weekend will be dropping into the 30s again behind a strong cold front. That front is strong enough to give us a shot at a thunderstorm if the timing is late enough in the day. Long way away, but kind of fun to think of in February! Stay warm tonight.

Feb. 13, 9:04 p.m. - Sean Ash

Balmy in winter?  When overnight temperatures stay in the upper 30s/lower 40s during February that fits the bill!  A strong southwest wind continues to blow through Lower Michigan in advance of a cold front that at this time is over 500 miles to our northwest.

So what you have outside your door right now is what you'll wake up to at 6am-7am in the morning... when the front will be passing through the metro area.  A colder wind behind the frontal passage ensures temperatures will not budge much during the day, in fact they'll likely drop a few degrees in the mid 30s for the ride home from work.

Feb. 13, 2:03 p.m. - Sean Ash

Finally 40 degrees!  For only the 2nd time this year (53 on Jan. 1), and only the 5th time since December 1st highs in Detroit are at or above 40.  This warmth the byproduct of a gusty southwest wind that makes it feel more like 30... but who's complaining right?

A brief shot of colder air reemerges Valentine's Day and Tuesday, but will be followed by an even more impressive warm up later this week... as highs soar into the upper 40s Thursday and well into the 50s Friday!

Feb. 13, 12:02 a.m. - Sean Ash

Areas of snow continue to develop along/east of US-23 and on the upslope of a warmer dome air just to our west-southwest.  This "best lift" area will gradually transition east of the area... essentially pushing the snow into Ontario.

Taking its place will be areas of drizzle and fog, with lowered visibilities likely.  Some of this moisture may freeze on contact with temperatures a few degrees below 32.  Bottom-line slick spots possible overnight and  very early Sunday morning before climbing into the upper 30s.

Feb. 12, 10:24 p.m. - Sean Ash

Mid-level lift wins the war over drier low-levels... end result is narrow band of of snow moving through southeast Michigan.  A quick accumulation will occur, with a dusting around Detroit to up to an 1" for areas east of I-75 and along/north of M-59.  Roads will mainly be wet, though a few slick spots on bridges/overpasses are possible.  Most snow ends well before sunrise, with areas of freezing fog/drizzle likely later tonight.

Feb. 12, 7:57 p.m. - Sean Ash

Radar, surface, and upper-air analysis show some weak mid-level lift moving into southeast Michigan... but not enough in my opinion to overcome a relatively dry boundary layer.  Though a period of light snow remains in the overnight forecast, it likely will not be persistent enough to accumulate.  

Feb. 12, 5:29 p.m. - Sean Ash

Finally above freezing!  In fact high hit 34 in Detroit Saturday... marking warmest day since January 18th.  More weather factoids... daily snow: .4" / monthly snow: 16.4" which is now tied for the 15th snowiest February in Detroit history.

Best chance for more than a dusting overnight will be north of metro, with 1" potential for areas north of the M-59 corridor.  No big storms in the 7day, just BIG WARMTH!  Good shot at 50+ on Friday before frontal system knocks us back down to reality by the end of next weekend.

Feb. 12, 11:32 a.m. - Sean Ash

These are strange times... the sun is shining, temperatures are near the freezing mark, and the Cleveland Cavs are on a one-game winning streak!  Strange times indeed.

Take away the gusty wind and this would be near-perfect winter day in southeastern Michigan.  But the brisk wind is definitely taking a chunk out of the relatively warmer day... as wind chill temps remain parked in the mid teens.

All signs continue to point toward a massive warm up on the eastern-half of the country next week... a warm up that will send SE Michigan temps into the 40-45 degree range Wed/Thu & into the 50s Friday!  

Feb. 11, 11:10 p.m. - Dave Rexroth

Temps won't drop much at all tonight. Then we are in the 30s through Tuesday and 40s for Wed.-Fri. In the transition from very cold to fairly mild there are a couple of weak systems coming through tonight and tomorrow night. Very little snow tonight andmaybe an inch tomorrow night. Warm enough to have it melt during the day Sunday so you don't need to shovel!  Have a great weekend.

Feb. 11, 10:55 a.m. - Sean Ash

Just analyzed latest 12z model data into the forecast center... still supports light snow tonight and a second round of snow Saturday night.  Liquid equivalents of .04" in the Friday 7pm-Saturday 7am time frame, so I'm keeping dusting to half-inch accumulations for tonight.

Lift and moisture a bit more robust for Saturday night... as it's looking more and more like 1" for Detroit and nearing 2" along/north of M-59.  Nothing too big  but would require a little shoveling before weekend is over. 

I truly believe the past two mornings were the best (or worst depending on your outlook) that winter has in store for us in terms of cold air.  Major warm up still on target for next week as confidence continues to grow that we'll have our 1st 50°+ day since January 1st.

Feb. 10, 3:46 p.m. - Sean Ash

After concurring with Dave Rexroth we've opted to mention light accumulations in the updated, evening forecast package.  This specifically deals with the weekend outlook: a dusting to half-inch for Friday night-early Saturday morning... with slightly higher totals in the Saturday night-Sunday timeframe.  Timing, strength, location are all still very uncertain... but there is still ample time to nail things down.

It's a no-brainer that overnight will be equally as cold.  Clear sky, calming wind, arctic air and snow pack all SHOUT sub-zero lows!  Another Wind Chill Advisory will likely be needed for parts of southeastern Michigan by Friday morning.

Feb. 10, 1:15 p.m. - Sean Ash

Stop the presses!  After brutal cold start temperatures are now in the mid teens... though wind chills remains near zero.  

12z model data conflicts on solutions regarding several disturbances driving into Lower Michigan courtesy of a northwest flow.  For now it appears southeast Michigan may be just outside of the "best lift" zone for accumulation... but it's close enough (Thumb into northern Lower) that significant adjustments to the weekend outlook are possible.  Stay tuned.

Feb. 10, 8:58 a.m. - Sean Ash

Officially coldest morning in 2 years!  The last time Detroit dropped below zero was Feb. 5, 2009 when metro airport tanked to -4... that's exactly what happened this morning when dropped hit the same number at 8am.

It was a perfect recipe for bitter cold: clear sky, light wind and a 13" snow pack in southeastern Michigan.  Other notably cold locations: Ann Arbor -13, Adrian -7, Monroe -6, Pontiac -1.

Despite a beautiful blue sky and bright sun, it's going to be a challenge climbing out of this cold hole.  Afternoon highs will struggle to return to the mid teens.  Warmer air invades this weekend, but could be preceded by some snow... details coming up noon today.

Feb. 9, 11:33 p.m. - Sean Ash

Just before midnight and most reporting locations in southeast Michigan are already in single-digits!  Deep snow pack and fairly clear sky open the gates to our coldest night of winter... and possibly coldest in two years if Detroit falls below zero (Feb. 5, 2009 last time sub-zero at -4).    

Regardless... suburbs should be well below zero for several hours later tonight/early Thursday morning.  Wind chill values will flirt with advisory criteria and near -15 for a time.  We'll have quite a cold hole to dig out of, so despite a decent dose of sun... highs will struggle back into the mid teens Thursday afternoon!

Feb. 9, 3:01 p.m. - Sean Ash

The persistently westerly fetch off of Lake Michigan is driving lake effect flurries and snow showers into southeastern Lower Michigan... which will primarily impact areas along/west of US and the I-96/69 corridors.

A very light dusting is possible within a narrow squall that seems to be setting-up from Flint to Lapeer.  Otherwise cold sunshine is the story for the metro area.

Feb. 9, 11:29 a.m. - Sean Ash

Welcome to the deep freeze and in all likelihood the coldest air we'll have to deal with this winter.  Don't let the sun fool you today, temperatures will never make it to 20° and factoring in the wind it will constantly feel like 0 to -5! 

But things could always be worse right?  On this date in 1934 the all-time coldest temperature for the state of Michigan was set in Vanderbilt (near Gaylord) at -51°!

Feb. 8, 7:43 p.m. - Dave Rexroth

Everybody is talking about "the warm up", more in a minute, but don't forget the cold that is in place here!

Temps tonight will be as cold and maybe a little colder than last night. The other factor is the wind. Wind chills will get down to -10 overnight. You will feel worse early tomorrow morning than you did this morning when you step outside. The nasty cold lasts through Friday morning.

Okay. The warm up.....Looks like around 30 Sat. then mid 30s Sunday. It doesn't just go up, up, up through next week. There may be a small set back here or there on a couple of days as the winds shift around a couple of systems moving through. Yes, the 40s are possible, but remember too much warming too quickly can be a bad thing for the basements.

Feb. 7, 4:29 p.m. - Dave Rexroth

The start of the cold air is tonight, but the coldest mornings come Wed., Thu, Fri. mornings. Could be around zero all three mornings with the best chance of hitting it in Thu. morning. This air is some of the coldest of the season. We have not been below zero in Detroit (Metro Airport) yet, but we have a chance with this batch of air.

Cool thing, pun intended, is that there is a decent warm up for the weekend. Highs should reach the 30s with Sunday the warmest in the mid 30s. This warm up has a chance to be extended into next week as well. A little something for everyone!?

Feb. 6, 9:16 p.m. - Sean Ash

Good & bad news at the time of this point.  Snow showers are rapidly diminishing as upper level supports quickly diminishes over SE Michigan.

Bad news is a southwest wind (over snow pack) and a saturated air mass are aiding drizzle development around the metro area... and with temps below 32 this drizzle is freezing on contact.  Some roads are icing over and there are many accident reports around Detroit. 

It appears this will be possible all night long, until a drier northwest wind develops late tonight.

Feb. 6, 7:26 p.m. - Sean Ash

Radar analysis shows very disorganized precipitation over southeastern Michigan.   Water vapor imagery shows a decaying upper-level feature coming across Lake Michigan.  With this feature weakening, and not much solidarity to precipitation downstream I'm opting to lower forecast accumulations mainly an 1" or less.  

But as noted earlier, there will still be heavier bursts/bands within the viewing area to allow for pockets of locally 2" to 3"

Feb. 6, 5:27 p.m. - Sean Ash

Snow showers still dotting landscape around metro Detoit... but downstream GRR & IWX nexrad radars show a better consistency in snow development/coverage.  So expect the on & off nature of the recent snow (last 1-2 hours) to become more steady heading into late evening.

1"-2" still looks like a good call w/ pockets of 3" in heavier/persistent bursts.  Heading into the studio for live show starting at 6pm.  Super Bowl or 7 Action news... tough choice but I know you'll make the right one :)

Feb. 6, 2:45 p.m. - Sean Ash

For now snow it appears the onset of snow will be showery in nature... meaning expect quick bursts of moderate/heavy snow & reduced visibility during the shower.  This means accumulation will vary a great deal initial before a slightly wider shield of snow develops heading into the evening.

I'm still forecasting 1"-2" w/ locally higher 3" totals possible in heavier/persistent shower bands.  It appears snow will wind and diminish between 4am-6am.  The longer (12 hour+) duration of snow, combined with temps in the upper 20s/low 30s will allow treated roads to remain wet.

But within heavier showers roads may become slick for a period of time.

Feb. 6, 11:10 a.m. - Sean Ash

Saturday's heavy snow brought the metro airport (official reporting station for Detroit) monthly snow total up to 15.1"... which places February 2011 in the Top 20 snowiest Detroit Februaries in ONLY 5 DAYS!  With a fresh 1"-3" expected around SE Michigan later today and into tonight, it' conceivable we could be nearing the Top 15 before the weekend is over.

The season snowfall total is 42.3" which is over 14" above normal!

Feb. 6, 10:50 a.m. - Sean Ash

Super Bowl Sunday!  Radar analysis this morning already show flurries & light snow creeping east of US 23... a trend that continues all day long as upper-level energy stretches out over Lower Michigan providing the needed lift for snow.

There will be a widespread 1"-2" accumulation, with areas of 3" in any mesoscale bands that may develop in this regime.  

FWIW: Green Bay 28 Pittsburgh 17

Feb. 6, 12:58 a.m. - Sean Ash

Wow... what a crazy National Meteorologist Day we had on Saturday!  A band of heavy of snow fell across southeast Michigan, with the highest totals centered over metro Detroit... where totals averaged between 4"-5" and areas of 6".  

The official 4.8" accumulation at Metro Airport pushes the season snowfall to 42.3", over 14" above normal!  Tonight we're in between systems, with new arriving Sunday afternoon as an upper-level disturbance approaches the southern Great Lakes.  For now, it appears a new 1"-2" is likely with this feature by early Monday morning... though 3" reports can't be ruled out.  Chris Edwards will have the latest starting at 6am on 7 Action News Sunday morning.

Feb. 5, 4:35 p.m. Sean Ash

Radar analysis indicating heaviest snowfall winding down as upper-level storm departs region.  An additonal 1" possible before snow completely ends over Detroit by 6pm.  Looks like 3"-5" for Wayne, Washtenaw, Lenawee, Monroe & southern St. Clair/Macomb counties.  An area of 2"-4" should shape-up between the M-59/696 corridors and very little expected west of Port Huron along I-69.

Roads will remain snow-covered and slick even after the snow, due to the heavy amount in short time period.  Stay safe if traveling this evening.

Feb. 5, 2:59 p.m. Sean Ash

Metro Detroit getting creamed w/ heavy snow today. Anywhere south of M-59 & east of Telegraph can expect a good 3"-4" w/ heavier pockets of 5"-6" certainly possible. There will be an extreme cut-off in accumulation in areas north of M-59 and west of I-75... where a dusting to 1" appears to be in line. Roads are an absolute mess... traveling today and this evening will be beyond a chore.

Feb. 5, 12:51 p.m. Sean Ash

Saturday snow so far: Blissfield 2.8" / Monroe 1.3" / Riverview 1"-2" and white-out conditions. w/ moderate snow band setting-up from northern banks of Lake St. Clair-southwestward to Adrian. Widespread 2"-4" expected w/in this band including Detroit, St. Clair Shores, Grosse Pointes, Ann Arbor, downriver to state line. Tight accumulation gradient results in f...east or famine... little expected M-59 north & 1"-3" between M-59/696. In the wx center w/ updates!

Feb. 5, 11:40 a.m. - Sean Ash

Winter Weather Advisory now in effect of Wayne, Washtenaw, Lenawee, and Monroe counties until 7pm this evening.  As mentioned earlier, it appears a widespread 3"-5" can be expected for Detroit and areas south toward the Ohio state-line.  Periods of moderate to heavy snow will cause quick accumulations and likely make traveling difficult in-between Detroit and Toledo this afternoon.

Feb. 5, 10:45 a.m. - Sean Ash

Keep the snow shovels & blowers nearby... some of you will need them TODAY!  Snow is already falling over most of the southern-half (south of I-696) of the viewing area, courtesy of an upper-level disturbance that's driving farther north than forecasted.

If you live downriver, in Lenawee & Monroe counties, or SW Ontario I'd expect 3"-5" today... with a few 5" reports not out of the question.  Those of you in Washtenaw, northern Wayne & southeastern Macomb counties are in line for 1"-3... with areas north of I-696 expecting a dusting to 1".  

Roads within the heavier snow will become snow-covered and slick, definitely expect extra time on your drive from Toledo to Detroit.

Feb. 4, 8:35 a.m. - Keenan Smith

After a cold and crisp start to the day with sub-zero wind chills, ample sunshine will lift temperatures into the middle 20's. These temperatures will be a little below average for this time of the year. Thirty-two degrees is our average high temperature. Clouds creep in tonight and their presence helps keep temps from fall as far as they have over the last several nights.

Spotty light snow possible this weekend, with a better chance of snow Sunday nigh and Monday. Several inches are possible and the timing could slow down the Monday morning commute.

If you want to see a timelapse of the blizzard as it swept through Chicago, here a great look! Now Wings fans may have to hold their noses on this one. It comes to us from a camera mounted on the United Center and courtesy of the dreaded Blackhawks! It's cool anyway! Click the link below for the timelapse.

http://video.blackhawks.nhl.com/videocenter/console?catid=894&id=95893

Feb. 3, 9:15 p.m. - Dave Rexroth

Temps now are between 10 and 16 with wind chills in the 5 above to 2 below range. Lows tonight are going to be mostly in the single digits above zero, but a few points may drop just under that zero mark. Wind chills at their coldest will drop to 10 below. It's colder than a ___________________!  You may fill in the blank yourself. Stay warm! The kids at the bus stop will need the warmest gear they have.

 

Feb. 3, 5:00 p.m. - Chris Edwards

The sun felt really nice today, and we'll enjoy a ton of sun again Friday, but when that big ball of fire goes down at night, it's going to be cold aain.  If winds drop off to less than 10 mile per hour or so in your backyard, and you're away from the heart of the city tonight`, you could get down to 0 degrees or colder.  We think a breeze will stay up most of the night in most spots, though, so we shouldn't crater on the overnight lows too much.

Though I feel a little burned by the models that overforecast the snowfall in the big storm, they are advertising a more run-of--the-mill event for us Sunday night into Monday.  It doesn't look like a monster at all, but a few inches of snow is what I'm thinking right now.  In my driveway, there's still room to put a bit more snow around the mailbox.  I'm planning to break out my cross country skis on Sunday.

 

 

Feb. 2, 10:45 p.m. - Dave Rexroth

Storm total for Detroit( Metro Airport) was 9". That puts Detroit at 37.5" for the year. That's 10.7" above normal for this point through the season. It is 19" above our pace from last year..... and last year was a busy year for snow that finished above average. Next snow chance is Friday night and Saturday.

 

Feb. 2, 10:07 p.m. - Dave Rexroth

It is going to get very cold tonight. It is the perfect set up for dropping temps. The clouds have cleared out, the wind is getting lighter, and we have all of the fresh snow pack. Each one of these things helps, but all together we can get the maximum cooling overnight. Dew points are already below zero in the Saginaw valley. That dry air is moving in and will help with the drop-off as well.

So where are we headed? In Detroit the low will be 2. Most of the suburbs will be between -2 and 2. Areas farther out like Ann Arbor, Howell, Holly, Armada, Dundee should be the coldest in the -4 to -1 range.

Feb. 2, 5:25 p.m. - Dave Rexroth

Snow totals ranged from the least, around 5", in southern counties to the most, 12" in the north. The vast majority of reports were in the 7"-10" range. Sleet in the south kept the totals lighter there.

Now tonight the cold is draining in. Winds and clouds decrease and with fresh snow the heat really escapes. Lows tonight will be just above or below zero. Bundle up!

Feb. 2, 11:42 a.m. - Sean Ash

I'm live at noon outside Broadcast House w/ snowfall total map & Keenan explains why higher totals didn't pan out.

Feb. 2, 11:30 a.m. - Sean Ash

Light to moderate snow continues across southeast Michigan.  Best accumulation this afternoon occurs north of I-696 where a few inches are possible.

Newest snow reports: 9" Birmingham, 8" Brownstown Township, 8" Brighton, 8" Adrian, 7.5" Ortonville, 7" New Haven.

Some 12z models hinting of some more snow sneaking into SE Michigan Saturday... Dave Rexroth will have an update tonight at 5pm.

Feb. 2, 8:36 a.m. - Sean Ash

Light snow likely into midday with some heavier snow possible north of I-94.  Additional 1"-3" within this area of snow.  

Latest storm reports: 9" Capac, 6" Ann Arbor, 5.5" White Lake.

Feb. 2, 7:03 a.m. - Keenan Smith

All Blizzard Warnings and Winter Storm Warning are cancelled. A Winter Weather Advisory for the entire viewing area has been posted until noon. An additional couple of inches of snow will be possible this morning. Travel remains difficult this morning

Feb. 2, 6:24 a.m. - Sean Ash

Snow Reports: 9" North Branch, Lapeer County

Feb. 2, 6:09 a.m. - Sean Ash

High snowfall total so far goes to Clarkston at 8.9" with Canton's 7.25" not far behind.  Totals should stream fast and furious with storm spotters waking up.

Feb. 2, 5:55 a.m. - Keenan Smith

Snow tapering off from south to north across the Metro Area. Blizzard Warning still active, but Blizzard conditions are becoming much more difficult to find. Blowing snow and drifts up to 1"-2" can be found areawide. Roads remain snow covered and travel will still be challenging this morning.

Follow the live blog below:

Feb. 2, 5:30 a.m. - Sean Ash

Small snow flakes feel like needles hitting my face outside this morning.  Focus shifts from snow (or lack of in spots) to wind.  Big time blowing & drifting continues as wind remains 20-30 w/ gusts nearing 40 mph.  

Well north & northwest of Detroit will have best chance to experience true blizzard conditions this morning... with reduced visibilities elsewhere.

Feb. 2, 4:15 a.m. - Sean Ash 

Live outside of Broadcast House with a very light snow right now.  Radar trends indicate show should shut down soon over metro area.  Heaviest snow later this morning will set up along I-69 corridor.

Feb. 2, 3:15 a.m. - Sean Ash

BOOM!  Thundersnow outside Broadcast House... as sleet has finally changed to snow.  Transition to all snow should continue rest of morning, warm pocket of air aloft departs to the east.

Highest snow totals will set-up along/north of I-69 where we've updated to 9"-14".  Metro area totals, due to period of sleet & dry air intrusion, will be lower in the 6"-9" range.

Feb. 2, 1:39 a.m. - Sean Ash

Thundersnow/sleet reports so far: Manchester, Romeo, Southfield, Carleton, Ann Arbor.  

As noted in earlier posts... it appears this period of sleet around metro Detroit will lower snow totals into the 8"-10" range.  But we're still expecting very dangerous driving conditions through late Wednesday morning as the center drives strong wind into southeast Michigan.

Feb. 2, 12:58 a.m. - Sean Ash

THUNDER!  Your ears aren't deceiving you... heavy convective snow/sleet bands are now pivoting into SE Michigan and are accompanied by thunder & lightning.

Within these bands expect very heavy rates of precipitation regardless of type.  Also, strong, gusty wind is causing significant drifting and roads are very tough snow covered.

Feb. 1, 11:55 - Chris Edwards 

I just came in from outside the studios and it is NASTY out there.  The wind settles down a little for a while, only to come up in strong gusts seemingly out of nowhere.  A section of the parking lot that I shoveled down to blacktop drifted over in less than 20 minutes.  I wouldn't even think of shoveling before after lunch on Wednesday unles you absolutely have to.  The thundersnow reports to our west are getting closer to us now, and I think a lot of us will have a chance to hear thunder and see the bright white flashes of lightning with snow during the middle of the night.  If the wind doesn't rattles your windows, the thunder might.

Feb. 1, 11:40pm - Dave Rexroth

Winds have really increased to gusts of 40 mph+ and that is putting wind chills around zero or just below. This will only get worse overnight! If you see the snow stop, it is only temporary. There is much more to come overnight. Totals will end up in the 8"-14" range.

Feb. 1, 9:02pm - Dave Rexroth

My kids just found out they are home tomorrow. Like many of yours they are squealing with joy. The heaviest snow rates are just now entering Michigan from Indiana. Winds will continue to increase as well. Right now the gusts are between 25-35 mph. Gusts will easily go to 40 mph overnight.

Feb. 1, 7:15pm - Sean Ash

Snow just about falling everywhere... sans the NE viewing area.  Snow rates & wind will both increase the next several hours.  Several inches will be on the ground by midnight, when it's possible many places will be at or above 4"-6".

Dave & Chris are keeping a close eye on a "dry slot" that's screaming into NW-W Indiana.  If this dry air surge makes it into viewing area it could lower totals.  For now, Dave & Chris are keeping our initial forecast accumulations.  Going to try & catch a few winks of sleep before I'm back in the station around midnight.

Feb. 1, 6:15pm - Sean Ash

Numerous reports of moderate snow now south of I-696: Garden City, Saline, Manchester, Adrian, Monroe.

Feb. 1, 5:45 p.m. - Sean Ash

Reports of moderate to heavy snow now up to I-94...radar analysis supports it. Mod to heavy snow will overspread region next several hours.  Expect quick accumulations and roads to quickly become snow covered.  Wind is also picking up as storm center nears.  Gusts nearing 30mph!

Feb. 1, 5:19 p.m. - Sean Ash

Subject to change but here's Dave's forecast taking into account the northward progress of mixed precip, strongest atmospheric dynamics farther west than earlier model runs:

Lenawee/Monroe Counties & extreme SW Ontario: 8"-10"

Metro Detroit: 10"-12"

M-59 corridor: 12"-15"

Feb. 1, 5:17 p.m. - Sean Ash

Snow picking up north of Ohio stateline... this trend continues southwest to northeast next few hours. Snow likely areawide by 7pm & heavy precipitation quickly ensues. Getting worried about mixed precip reports in already in northern Indiana/Ohio... due to very impressive warm push aloft. Sleet will be key to snow totals for Detroit-southward.

Feb. 1, 3:07 p.m. - Sean Ash

In the weather office w/ Chris Edwards & Dave Rexroth... putting finishing touches on snowfall forecast.  Update coming shortly.  Doesn't appear "major" changes will be needed, but will trying to factor in how much sleet will occur.

Feb. 1, 12:07 p.m. - Sean Ash

Impressive storm reports coming in from southern Plains: 

*roof collapse at HardRock Cafe in Catoosa, OK. 

*Meosnet site in Boise City, OK reporting -36 wind chill... coldest ever wind chill for state of Oklahoma

*12" in Tulsa, OK

 

Tuesday, Feb. 1 10:24 a.m. - Sean Ash

Still on target for powerful winter storm... I'm not changing our forecast for noon show.  However, latest 12z NAM & BAMS models are suggesting a period of heavy sleet creeping into Wayne, Monroe, Lenawee counties.  This could lower snowfall totals here. 

For now I'm not convinced this will happen, but we'll compare with other models that will be coming in over the next few hours... and Dave Rexroth & Chris Edwards may need to lower forecast accumulations in these areas.

So I'm keeping our widespread 10"-15" accumulation... and highly confident we're see/hear thunder & lightning overnight with incredible lift associated with this system. 

Tuesday, Feb 1 8:40 a.m. - Keenan Smith

Currently this storm system is center in northern Louisiana with a complex mix of precipitation. Severe thunderstorms to the south and east and heavy, blowing snow to the north and west. One universal will be high winds. This system has shut down DFW airport in Dallas- Fort Worth, site of the Super Bowl. Oklahoma is under a blizzard warning and Tulsa has more than 1/2 foot of fresh snow, but drifts of 1 to 1 1/2 feet. Rogers, OK is reporting 3 foot drifts. Snowfall rates of up to 2" per hour are being reported across the state.

Tuesday, Feb 1, 4:35 a.m. - Keenan Smith

A Blizzard Warning has been issued for the entire viewing area from 7pm this evening until 7pm Wednesday evening. This replaces the Winter Storm Watch. The forecast is still on track with heavy snow, gusty NE winds and whiteout conditions. Travel will be dangerous during this time period and is strongly discouraged.

Tuesday, Feb 1, 3:59 a.m. - Keenan Smith

The first round of snow should taper off early this morning. A persistent NE wind eroded some of the early storm, but enough reached the ground that travel this morning will be impacted. Radar indications are that up to 2" have fallen across the area, heaviest in Monroe, Lenawee, Washtenaw and Livingston counties.

This morning we are still on track for heavy, blowing snow starting this evening and lasting through the overnight hours. Travel will be extremely difficult with whiteout conditions. With an entire suite of forecast models continuing to output around 1 inch of precipitable water, 10-15 inches of snow is still likely.

Monday, Jan. 31, 10:48 p.m. - Dave Rexroth

The dry northeast wind is winning so far. Nothing much yet for snow. Overnight the heaviest moisture looks to go through Indiana and Ohio, but enough gets into Lenawee and Monroe counties to put their totals around 3"-4". Most of the metro has a good shot at 1"-3" with the 1" amounts likely north of M59. The second storm is getting better organized in the southwest U.S.

Lots going for it like good jet energy, open Gulf moisture, strong temp difference zone just to our south and southeast. These all help lift the moisture into the colder air north of the center of the storm....that's where we are. Still thinking 10"-15" for second storm total around a good portion of SE Michigan.