David Trott, Hansen Clarke lead key southeast Michigan races for Congress

DETROIT (WXYZ) - Republican Congressman Kerry Bentivolio may be on his way out of the U.S. House of Representatives and Democrat Hansen Clarke may be on his way back. That’s the results of an exclusive new WXYZ/Detroit Free Press Poll. 

If the Michigan Primary election were held today, 53 percent of likely GOP voters in the 11th Congressional District say they would cast their ballot for attorney David Trott. Only 31 percent would vote to re-elect first-term incumbent Bentivolio. Sixteen percent are undecided. 

Bentivolio replaced former Livonia Congressman Thaddeus McCotter after he abruptly resigned from Congress in July 2012. The 11th Congressional District is traditionally represented by a Republican but with so much political turmoil as of late; four Democrats have also tossed their hats in the ring.

Meanwhile, in the hotly contested 14th District primary race, former Congressman Hansen Clarke is leading the Democratic candidates. In our automated poll conducted by EPIC MRA, 39 percent of 822 likely Democratic voters said they would vote for Clarke. Twenty-eight percent would select Southfield Mayor Brenda Lawrence, 20 percent favor State Representative Rudy Hobbs and 4 percent would vote for political newcomer Burgess Foster. Nine percent of the respondents couldn’t make up their minds.

The 14th District has been represented by Congressman Gary Peters who is seeking the U.S. Senate seat of retiring Michigan Senator Carl Levin. Clarke represented Michigan’s old 13th District from 2011 – 2013 but lost to Peters when the two Democrats were pitted against each other due to redistricting. 

The 14th District is considered a strong Democratic seat. It represents the northwest side of Detroit, Highland Park, and significant portions of suburbs in Wayne and Oakland Counties.

EPIC MRA President Bernie Porn said, “The 11th District race is shaping up as an example of the GOP establishment on the verge of defeating a Tea Party candidate supporter. Bentivolio is being strongly out spent and his performance in his district has been controversial with voters.”  

Our poll shows that Trott currently leads Bentovolio in all regions of the district.

In the 14th District, Porn noted, “The base of supporters that Hansen Clarke had when he was in Congress obviously remembered his service. Something weird would have to happen for Hansen Clarke to lose this race.” 

Clarke leads solidly in Wayne County, Lawrence does well with African American women, and Clarke polls best among African American men and White voters. All four Democrats split the vote in Oakland County.   Whoever wins will face Republican Christina Conyers in November.

In the middle part of Michigan, Congressman David Camp is not seeking re-election in the 4th Congressional District. But three Republicans are competing to replace him. 

Our exclusive polling shows that businessman Paul Mitchell is leading with half of the GOP vote, State Senator John Moolenaar has 23 percent, and businessman Peter Konetchy would get 7 percent, if voters had to make a decision today.  

Whoever comes out on top will have to face a Democrat and a Green Party candidate in November. 

The Michigan Primary is on Tuesday, August 5th. Our automated poll has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.5 percent.  It was conducted July 12 – 13.

READ THE COMPLETE POLL, BROKEN DOWN BY DISTRICT, BELOW

11th District

On Tuesday, August 5th, a primary election will be held to nominate candidates from each of the two political parties to face candidates from other political parties in the November general election. How certain is it that you will vote in the primary?

86% - Very certain to vote
6% - Somewhat certain to vote
1% - Will probably vote
7% - Already voted/Intend to vote by absentee ballot

Do you have a favorable opinion of Dave Trott?

62% - Favorable
20% - Unfavorable
18% - Never heard or no opinion

Do you have a favorable opinion of Kerry Bentivolio?

54% - Favorable
32% - Unfavorable
14% - Never heard or no opinion

If the August 5th Republican primary election for U.S. Congress in the 11th District were held today, which candidate will you vote?

43% - Dave Trott
24% - Kerry Bentivolio
33% - Undecided/Unsure

Asked of undecided voters: Although you are undecided, if the election were held today and you had to decide right now, which candidate would you lean toward?

10% - Dave Trott
7% - Kerry Bentivolio
16% - Still Undecided/Unsure

Complete breakdown:

53% - Dave Trott
31% - Kerry Bentivolio
16% - Undecided/Unsure

How certain are you that you will vote for the candidate you chose and not change your mind?

66% - Very Certain
19% - Somewhat Certain
14% - Not Certain at All – May Change Mind
2% - Not Sure
Thinking about the Tea Party movement, do you support it?

79% - Support Tea Party
14% - Oppose Tea Party
7% - Undecided/Refused to Answer

For statistical purposes only, please use your telephone key pad to enter a two digit number to indicate your age?

Age 18-34 – 6%
Age 35-39 – 18%
Age 50-64 – 37%
Age 65+ - 39%

Gender breakdown

50% - Men
50% - Women

14th District

On Tuesday, August 5th, a primary election will be held to nominate candidates from each of the two political parties to face candidates from other political parties in the November general election. How certain is it that you will vote in the primary?

73% - Very Certain to Vote
6% - Somewhat Certain to Vote
2% - Will Probably Vote
19% - Already Voted/Intend to Vote by Absentee Ballot

Do you have a favorable opinion of Burgess D. Foster?

11% - Favorable
8% - Unfavorable
81% - Never Heard or No Opinion

Do you have a favorable opinion of Hansen Clarke?

72% - Favorable
9% - Unfavorale
19% - Never Heard or No Opinion

Do you have a favorable opinion of Brenda Lawrence?

65% - Favorable
17% - Unfavorable
17% - Never Heard or No Opinion

Do you a favorable opinion of Rudy Hobbs?

46% - Favorable
11% - Unfavorable
43% - Never Heard or No Opinion

If the Democratic for U.S. Congress in the 14th Congressional District were held today, which of the following candidates will you vote for?

3% - Burgess Foster
32% - Hansen Clarke
23% - Brenda Lawrence
18% - Rudy Hobbs
23% - Undecided/Unsure

Asked of undecided voters: Although you are undecided, if the election were held today and you had to decide right now, which candidate would you lean toward?

1% - Burgess Foster
7% - Hansen Clark
5% - Brenda Lawrence
2% - Rudy Hobbs
9% - Still Undecided/Unsure

Complete breakdown.

4% - Burgess Foster
39% - Hansen Clark
28% - Brenda Lawrence
20% - Rudy Hobbs
9% - Undecided/Unsure

How certain are you that you will vote for the candidate you chose and not change your mind?

59% - Very Certain
22% - Somewhat Certain
14% - Not Certain at All = May Change Mind
5% - Not Sure

What is your race or national origin

47% - White
34% - African American/Black
1% - Hispanic
5% - Mixed Race
11% - Undecided/Refused to Answer

Are you a member of a labor union or teachers association?

30% - Respondent a Union Member
14% - Someone Else a Union Member
2% - More than 1 Union Member
52% - No one in Household a Union Member

2% - Unsure/Refused to Answer

For statistical purposes only, please use your telephone key pad to enter a two digit number to indicate your age?

7% - Age 18-34
16% - Age 35-49
32% - Age 50-64
45% - Age 65+

Gender Breakdown

41% - Men
59% - Women

4th District

On Tuesday, August 5th, a primary election will be held to nominate candidates from each of the two political parties to face candidates from other political parties in the November general election. How certain is it that you will vote in the primary?

87% - Very certain to vote
6% - Somewhat certain to vote
3% - Will probably vote
4% - Already voted/Intend to vote by absentee ballot

Do you have a favorable opinion of Peter Konetchy?

25% - Favorable
8% - Unfavorable
67% - Never heard or no opinion

Do you have a favorable opinion of Paul Mitchell?

70% - Favorable
12% - Unfavorable
18% - Never heard or no opinion

Do you have a favorable opinion of John Moolenaar?

52% - Favorable
21% - Unfavorable
27% - Never heard or no opinion

As you may know, Dave Camp decided that he would not seek reelection to Congress from the 4th Congressional District. Knowing that, if the August 5th Republican primary election for U.S. Congress in the 4th Congressional District were held today, which of the following candidates have you already voted for, or will you vote for on election day?

4% - Peter Konetchy
36% - Paul Mitchell
23% - John Moolenaar
37% - Undecided/Unsure

Asked of undecided voters: Although you are undecided, if the election were held today and you had to decide right now, which candidate would you lean toward?

3% - Peter Konetchy
14% - Paul Mitchell
4% - John Moolenaar
15% - Still undecided/unsure

Complete breakdown:

7% - Peter Konetchy
50% - Paul Mitchell
27% - John Moolenaar
16% - Undecided/Unsure

How certain are you that you will vote for the candidate you chose and not change your mind?

48% - Very certain
28% - Somewhat certain
18% - Not certain at all – may change mind
6% - Not sure

Do you support the Tea Party movement?

73% - Support the Tea Party
17% - Oppose the Tea Party
10% - Undecided/Refused to answer

For statistical purposes only, please use your telephone key pad to enter a two digit number to indicate your age?

6% - Age 18-34
16% - Age 35-49
33% - Age 50-64
45% - Age 65+

Gender breakdown

48% - Men
52% - Women

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