EXCLUSIVE POLL: Obama back in front, Hoekstra holds big lead on Durant

(WXYZ) - With the Michigan Primary Election exactly one week away, President Barack Obama has regained his lead in the race for the White House and former West Michigan Congressman Pete Hoekstra has a commanding lead in the Republican contest for one of Michigan's U.S. Senate seats.

In an exclusive Channel 7/Detroit Free Press poll conducted by EPIC MRA for its statewide media partners, 48 percent of the 600 likely voters surveyed said they would re-elect Obama. Forty-two percent said they would cast their ballots for former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney.  

This is a three- point turnaround for the President since our last survey in June. At that time, Republican Romney was narrowly leading Democrat Obama 46 – 45 percent. 

Bernie Porn, President of the Lansing-based polling firm EPIC MRA,  believes "President Obama seems to be capitalizing more on Mr. Romney's missteps than on anything he has done on his own. Romney's first foray into international public policy has not gone smoothly."

In a separate survey of 800 likely GOP Michigan voters, those surveyed favored solidly Pete Hoekstra over Detroit Attorney Clark Durant, 51 percent to 27 percent.  

Porn said, "Hoekstra's 24 point lead clearly shows Clark Durant has done too little, too late in this campaign.  He should have been advertising and introducing himself to the public much earlier."

If the numbers hold up and Hoekstra wins the GOP primary, he will have his hands full facing Senator Debbie Stabenow in November. 

If the race between Hoekstra and Stabenow were held today, Stabenow would win 49 percent to 35 percent. Pete Hoekstra has slipped three points since our last poll taken in June. 

 

The 600 sample survey was conducted July 24 – July 31 and has a margin of error of plus or minus 4 percent.   The 800 sample GOP voter survey was taken July 28 – 29 and has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.5 percent.

READ THE COMPLETE POLL RESULTS BELOW

General poll:

Overall, would you say that things in the United States are generally headed in the right direction, or, have things pretty seriously gotten off on the wrong track?

  • Right direction – 31%
  • Wrong track – 56%
  • Undecided/Refused to answer – 13%

How about in Michigan – are things generally headed in the right direction, or, have things pretty seriously gotten off on the wrong track?

  • Right direction – 44%
  • Wrong track – 45%
  • Undecided/Refused to answer – 11%

Now, I would like to read the names of several political figures. For each one, please tell me if you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of that person. If you do not recognize a name, please tell me and we can move on.

Barack Obama

  • Favorable – 49%
  • Unfavorable – 46%
  • Undecided – 5%

Rick Snyder

  • Favorable – 47%
  • Unfavorable – 41%
  • Undecided – 11%

Mitt Romney

  • Favorable – 40%
  • Unfavorable – 48%
  • Undecided – 12%

Debbie Stabenow

  • Favorable – 47%
  • Unfavorable – 38%
  • Undecided – 14%

Pete Hoekstra

  • Do not recognize – 10%
  • Favorable – 25%
  • Unfavorable – 27%
  • Undecided – 37%

Overall, how would you rate the job being done by Barack Obama as President -- would you give him a positive rating of excellent or pretty good, or a negative rating of just fair or poor?

  • Positive – 44%
  • Negative – 55%
  • Undecided/Refused to answer – 1%

Overall, how would you rate the job Rick Snyder has done as Michigan's Governor – would you give him a positive rating of excellent or pretty good, or a negative rating of just fair or poor?

  • Positive – 45%
  • Negative – 53%
  • Undecided/Refused to answer – 1%

How would you rate the job Debbie Stabenow has done as Michigan United States Senator – would you give her a positive rating of excellent or pretty good, or a negative rating of just fair or poor?

  • Positive – 41%
  • Negative – 49%
  • Undecided/Refused to answer – 10%

How would you rate your personal financial situation these days -- good, bad, or somewhere in the middle?

  • Good – 33%
  • Somewhere in the middle – 51#
  • Bad – 15%
  • Undecided/Refused to answer – 1%

Thinking about this year's November general election, how would you vote on the following matchups?

If the election for President were held today, would you vote for Mitt Romney the Republican or Barack Obama the Democrat?

  • Obama – 48%
  • Romney – 42%
  • Undecided – 10%

If the election for U.S Senate were held today and the candidates were Debbie Stabenow and Pete Hoekstra, would you vote for Pete Hoekstra the Republican or Debbie Stabenow the Democrat?

  • Stabenow – 49&
  • Hoekstra – 35%
  • Undecided/Refused to answer – 16%

Thinking again about the economy in Michigan, do you believe the economy in Michigan…

  • Has already bottomed out and is starting to improve – 53%
  • Is at the bottom but is not yet getting any better -35%
  • Has not yet bottomed out and will still get worse – 17%
  • Undecided/Refused to answer – 5%

Based on your personal experience or what you know or have heard or read, do you support or oppose the efforts of the Tea Party movement?

  • Support Tea Part – 33%
  • Oppose Tea Part – 47%
  • Undecided/Refused to answer – 20%

Do you think of yourself as pro-choice, meaning that you support allowing women to have the right to an abortion, or do you consider yourself pro-life, meaning that you oppose abortions except where it is necessary to save the life of the mother?

  • Pro-choice – 48%
  • Pro-life – 45%
  • Undecided/Refused to answer – 7%

Generally speaking, do you consider yourself a Republican or a Democrat?

  • Democrat – 38%
  • Republican – 36%
  • Independent/Other – 4%

Republican Senate Poll:

Do you have a very favorable, somewhat favorable, somewhat unfavorable or very unfavorable opinion of Clark Durant?

  • Favorable – 46%
  • Unfavorable – 21%
  • Never heard or no opinion of – 33%

Do you have a very favorable, somewhat favorable, somewhat unfavorable or very unfavorable opinion of Gary Glenn?

  • Favorable – 19%
  • Unfavorable – 21%
  • Never heard or no opinion of – 60%

Do you have a very favorable, somewhat favorable, somewhat unfavorable or very unfavorable opinion of Pete Hoekstra?

  • Favorable – 67%
  • Unfavorable – 22%
  • Never hear or no opinion of – 11%

Do you have a very favorable, somewhat favorable, somewhat unfavorable or very unfavorable opinion of Randy Hekman?

  • Favorable – 22%
  • Unfavorable – 19%
  • Never heard or no opinion of – 59%

If the Republican primary for U.S. Senate were held today, which of the following candidates have you either already voted for, or intend to vote for at your polling place in the August 7th primary election?

  • Clark Durant – 22%
  • Gary Glenn – 2%
  • Pete Hoekstra – 40%
  • Randy Hekman – 2%
  • Undecided/Unsure – 34%

Although you are undecided, if the election were held today and you had to decide right now, which candidate would you lean toward?

  • Clark Durant – 27%
  • Gary Glenn – 3%
  • Peter Hoekstra – 51%
  • Randy Hekman – 4%
  • Still Undecided/Unsure – 15%

How certain are you that you will vote for the candidate you chose and not change your mind?

  • Very certain – 53%
  • Somewhat certain – 28%
  • Not certain at all/May change mind – 15%
  • Not sure – 2%

What are the chances that the likely Republican nominee for U.S. Senate will be able to defeat incumbent U.S. Senator Debbie Stabenow in the November general election?

  • Confident – 62%
  • Not Confident – 32%
  • Not Sure -6%

Do you support the Tea Party movement?

  • Support – 80%
  • Oppose – 13%
  • Undecided/Refused to answer – 7%

For statistical purposes only, please use your telephone key pad to enter a two digit number to indicate your age?

  • 18 to 29 – 3%
  • 30 to 40 – 7%
  • 41 to 49 – 15%
  • 50 to 55 – 12%
  • 56 to 64 – 20%
  • 65 and over – 42%
  • Undecided/Refused to answer – 1%
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