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Exclusive Poll: Detroit Council Race a Toss-Up


Last Update: 11/02/2009 9:06 pm
(WXYZ) - As the November 3rd Detroit General Election comes down to the wire, an exclusive Action News poll reveals that the race for Detroit City Council is a toss up. The poll also shows Mayor Dave Bing holding on to his lead over challenger Tom Barrow.

The Action News poll was conducted by EPIC-MRA and 400 likely voters participated in the poll. Results carry a margin of error of +/- 4.9%.

Poll reveals incumbent Mayor Dave Bing is holding on to a 22 point lead (46% to 24% which is short of a majority) over challenger Tom Barrow.

Bing is likely to win but can’t take the race for granted with 25 percent of Detroit voters saying they are still undecided.
 
Normally, about two-thirds of the undecided vote goes to the challenger which would make Barrow fall short of the votes he needs to unseat Bing. However, the race for Detroit’s top political job has tightened up significantly since the August Primary Election which Bing won with 74 percent of the vote.

In the hotly contested race for Detroit City Council, President Ken Cockrel, Jr. and former television anchor/reporter Charles Pugh are tied for the lead with 10 percent of the vote. They are followed closely by former Detroit Police Lt. Gary Brown (9%) who is making the contest for Council president a three-man showdown.

Publicity about Pugh facing foreclosure on his home and losing newspaper endorsements from the Detroit Free Press and The Detroit News is apparently causing no decline in Pugh’s popular campaign.

Council incumbents Brenda Jones (7%), Kwame Kenyatta (6%), Alberta Tinsley-Talabi (5%), and Jo Ann Watson (5%) round out the top nine candidates along with newcomers Saunteel Jenkins (7%) and former Detroit Police Deputy Chief James Tate (5%).

Depending on the voter turnout, the contest between the eighteen candidates could make the winners of the last two council seats very unpredictable!

How often do you vote in elections for Mayor of Detroit and city council – do you vote in city elections all of the time, most of the time, about half the time, seldom, or never?

91% All of the time
6% Most of the time
2% About half of the time-
1% Too young to have voted before/new voter

What are the chances that you will be voting in the upcoming November 3rd general election for Mayor of Detroit and City Council -- are you very certain to vote, somewhat certain, will you probably vote, are the chances only 50-50, have you already voted by absentee ballot, or, will you not likely vote?

73% Very certain to
2% Fairly certain
3% Will probably vote
22% Already voted by absentee ballot

(Question asked among absentee Voters) Did you vote for Dave Bing or Tom Barrow?

54% Dave Bing
33% Tom Barrow
9% Someone else
4% Undecided/Don't know

When you vote in the Tuesday, November 3rd City of Detroit election, will you vote by absentee ballot before election day, or, will you vote by physically going to the polling place on election day?

35% Will vote by absentee ballot
64% Will vote by going to the polling place
1% Undecided/Don't know/Refused

If the November 3rd general election for Mayor were held today, would you vote for Dave Bing or Tom Barrow?

46% Dave Bing
24% Tom Barrow
25% Undecided/Don’t know /Refused
4% Leading toward Tom Barrow
5% Other candidate


After I read the whole list of 18 candidates, please tell me which candidate will be your first choice, then your second, third, fourth and so on until you name all the candidates you plan to vote for, but no more than nine names. Let me know if you want me to read the list again?


TOTNAME1st2nd3rd4th5th6th7th8th9th
10%Ken Cockrel Jr.   18%22%11%  6%  3%  2%  1%  1%  2%
10%Charles Pugh10%15%15%  7%  7%  4%   3%  1%  2%
  9%Gary Brown  18%18%  8%  3%  5%  1%  ---  1%  ---
  7%Brenda Jones  1%  7%  --- ---11%  7%  2%  ---  2%
  7%Saunteel Jenkins  1%  3%  7%  6%15%17%11%  6%  6%
  6%Kwame Kenyatta  1%  4%  4%10%  4%12%13%10%  8%
  5%Alberta Tinsley-Talabi  1%  3%  7%  9%  6%  9%  6%  ---  4%
  5%James Tate  1%  4%  4%  5%  7%  8%  9%16%14%
  5%Jo Ann Watson  4%  2%  4%  5%  7%  8%  9%12%12%
  5%Mohamed Okdie  1%  9%10%11%  3%  2%  1%  3%  4%
  4%Andre L. Spivey  2%   1%  2%  2%  2%  7%11%15%14%
  4%John C. Bennett12%  3%  2%  1%  1%  2%  4%  ---  ---
  4%Lisa Howze  1%  2%   2%  5%  4%  5%13%10%14%
  3%Fred Elliott Hall ---  1%  3%  7%  6%  4%  5%  3%  ---
  3%Raphael B. Johnson ---  2%  5%14%  4%  2%  ---  2%  2%
  3%Shelley I. Foy ---  1%  1%  5%12%  5%  4%  5% ---
  2%David J. Cross  4%  2%   1%  2%  1%  ---  2%  1%  2%
  2%Jai-Lee Dearing ---  1%  1%  2%  1%  5%  6%14%10%
 ---Some other candidate (VOL  1%  ---  ---  ---  1%  ---  ---  ---  ---
  6%Undecided/Don’t Know 24%  ---  ---  ---  ---  ---  ---  ---  ---

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