OUTLOOK: Last season was supposed to be a down year for Butler basketball.
With a bunch of fresh new faces coach Brad Stevens' squad was entering a
rebuilding phase. However, someone forgot to inform the Bulldogs, as four
freshmen helped lead Butler to a Horizon regular season title and a berth in
the NCAA Tournament.
Butler was not the only talented team in the conference however, as UW-Green
Bay, Cleveland State and Wright State each finished with over 20 wins. The
Vikings of CSU actually took down Butler in the Horizon League tournament and
earned a spot in the Big Dance. The Vikings slipped past Wake Forest in the
opening round, but lost to Arizona in their next matchup. UW-Milwaukee was the
only other team to finish last year with a winning ledger in league play,
while the other five schools, Illinois-Chicago, Youngstown State, Loyola-
Chicago, Valparaiso and Detroit all fell below .500 on the season.
Not much should change with the new season approaching, as the Bulldogs seem
to be top dogs once again. Butler does not lose any significant players and
returns the majority of the contributors from a team that posted 26 victories
a year ago.
However, repeating as league champs will not be an easy task with teams such
as Wright State, UW-Milwaukee, Valparaiso, and Cleveland State all nipping at
their heels. The Raiders seem to be the most dangerous team, with a strong
group of experienced players back for coach Brad Brownell. UWM returns a few
quality starters that should make the Panthers a threat, while Valpo and
Cleveland State will also have enough talent to make some waves in the
conference.
After the top few teams though, there is a large drop-off. After posting 22
victories last season, the Phoenix of UW-Green Bay will likely suffer with
losses of some key players. Youngstown State and UIC should make minor
progress, but both schools are not ready to battle with the big boys. Rounding
out the conference will be Loyola and Detroit, as the two teams fight to avoid
the cellar.
CONFERENCE CHAMPION: Butler
PREDICTED ORDER OF FINISH: 1. Butler, 2. Wright State, 3. Wisconsin-Milwaukee,
4. Valparaiso, 5. Cleveland State, 6. Wisconsin-Green Bay, 7. Youngstown
State, 8. Loyola-Chicago, 9. Illinois-Chicago, 10. Detroit.
TEAM BY TEAM ANALYSIS:
BUTLER: The Bulldogs were not expected to have so much success this past
season, but a group of newcomers propelled the Bulldogs into the national
spotlight, and now Butler enters this year ranked 11th in the nation. The
backcourt tandem of Gordon Hayward and Shelvin Mack represents one of the best
guard duos in the conference. Hayward was named Horizon Newcomer of the Year,
and also participated on the USA Basketball 19-and-under squad over the
summer. Hayward was clearly not overmatched in his first college season as
the guard posted 13.1 ppg, 6.5 rpg, 30 blocks and a team-high 48 steals. Mack,
who also played with Hayward on the USA under-19 squad, was a tremendous floor
general, dishing out a team-high 111 assists, while also contributing 11.9
ppg. Ronald Norad and Zach Hahn are key reserves off the bench for coach
Stevens, especially Hahn, who is excellent from behind the arc, netting 41.0
percent of his attempts a year ago. The frontcourt has similar talent and it
begins with Matt Howard. Howard, who was the Horizon Newcomer of the Year as a
freshman, and Player of the Year last season as a sophomore, comes back to
lead the Bulldogs hopefully deep into March. Howard paced Butler last year
with 14.8 ppg, 6.8 rpg and 48 blocks and should be ready to increase those
numbers this season. Barring injuries, the loaded Bulldogs should be dancing
in March once again.
WRIGHT STATE: The Raiders racked up 20 wins a year ago, and did so with a
few key players out with injuries. The team's best scoring threat, Vaughn
Duggins, only played four games a year ago before going down for the rest of
the season with a broken ring finger. John David Gardner also had trouble
staying on the court, as the guard played in just 21 games. Both Duggins and
Gardner are back, and should give the Raiders a boost offensively, after the
team scored just 60.5 ppg a year ago. Along with Todd Brown, the team's lone
double-figure producer from last season (11.7 ppg), the Raiders have an
experienced and veteran backcourt, which can rival Butler's sensational
sophomore guards. The team does lack some experience in the low post, as Cory
Cooperwood is the best offensive option in the paint. Cooperwood contributed
9.5 ppg and also pulled down a team-high 5.4 rpg. Cooperwood though is the
lone scoring threat in the frontcourt and coach Brownell will need freshmen
newcomers Paul Darkwa and Tyler Koch to make instant contributions.
WISCONSIN-MILWAUKEE: The Panthers return three starters from a squad that
racked up 17 wins a year ago. Tone Boyle was a juco transfer last season, but
stepped right into the Panthers' lineup and contributed instantly, leading the
team with 13.2 ppg. Deonte Roberts will also be back in the backcourt, but for
this backcourt to really excel, Ricky Franklin will have to get his academics
in order and earn his way back onto the court. Franklin, who posted 9.1 ppg a
year ago, has the ability to be a tremendous scoring threat, but he is
currently in limbo waiting to see if he can be eligible as a fifth-year
senior. The frontcourt should also be solid this season with the return of
James Eayrs and Tony Meier. Eayrs is a big, bruising forward that loves
contact under the net, and is coming off a season in which he posted 11.2 ppg,
and also pulled down a team-high 5.5 rpg. As for Meier, he had a productive
freshman campaign, and really progressed down the stretch. Overall, Meier
finished with 6.7 ppg, but his 36.4 percent shooting effort is something he
will have to improve in his second season. If Franklin can gain eligibility,
the Panthers will go from a solid club to a dangerous contender.
VALPARAISO: After stumbling through only their second losing season since
1993, the Crusaders will try to bounce back and erase the memory of a 22-loss
campaign. There is plenty of talent for coach Homer Drew to work with,
beginning with a trio of guards in Michael Rogers, Brandon McPherson and
Howard Little. Rogers is the top returning scorer from last year's squad after
posting 9.9 ppg, to go along with 4.9 rpg. At 6-6, he is a big guard with
tremendous athleticism, causing matchup problems for the opposition. As for
Little, he does a bit of everything on the floor, and not only posted 9.6 ppg
a year ago, but also collected 4.7 rpg and also recorded a team-best 49
steals. Though not as quick as Rogers, Little is a much better shooter,
converting 40.6 percent of his three-point attempts last season. Brandon
McPherson could be better than both of them, but the guard was lost early in
the year after suffering a knee injury. However, before McPherson went down,
he was contributing 9.2 ppg. Where this team will likely struggle is in the
paint, as Cameron Witt is the only returning player with experience, although
he only posted 4.7 ppg last season and his 1.8 rpg average left a lot to be
desired.
CLEVELAND STATE: The Vikings were picked to win the Horizon a year ago, and
while the team did not claim the regular season title, the Vikings did win the
conference tournament, and defeated Wake Forest in the first round of the Big
Dance. However, producing another 26-win season will not be easy for Cleveland
State, which loses two of its top three scorers. Norris Cole does return
however, and the guard will be looking to build off his sophomore season in
which he averaged 13.3 ppg, and dished out 90 assists. Trevor Harmon only
started seven games last year, but the guard will likely see much more time on
the floor. Also coach Gary Waters is hoping junior college transfer Lance
James can step in and instantly contribute. James is an excellent three-point
shooter and connected on 49.0 percent of his long range attempts in the juco
ranks. D'Aundray Brown will be relied on in the paint for Cleveland State.
Brown is a physical forward that pulled down 5.7 rpg a year ago, but coach
Waters will be looking for the junior to improve on his 7.4 ppg he posted a
year ago.
WISCONSIN-GREEN BAY: The Phoenix ripped off 22 victories last season and
posted an outstanding 13-1 ledger at home, but with three 1,000 point scorers
no longer on the roster, it would be mildly shocking for Green Bay to repeat a
similar campaign. As of now the team will rely heavily on the backcourt tandem
of Rahmon Fletcher and Troy Cotton. Cotton, who finished last year second on
the team in scoring with 12.6 ppg, is a pure shooter and dangerous from long
range (43.0 percent on three-point shots last year). As for Fletcher, he
proved to be a valuable floor general and not only led the team with 147
assists, but also contributed a solid 10.8 ppg. Where the Phoenix will likely
run into trouble is down low, as the team does not have many options outside
of Randy Berry. Berry is solid in the paint, and does an excellent job on the
glass (5.4 rpg last season), but he will need to become more of a scoring
threat (only 6.4 ppg in 2008-09), giving the Phoenix a consistent option under
the basket. Other than Berry, the team is hoping Cordero Barkley is completely
recovered from a wrist injury that kept him out for all of last year.
YOUNGSTOWN STATE: After losing 19 games a year ago there is reason for Penguin
fans to get excited for this season, as the team returns its top four scorers
from a year ago. YSU's success this season will begin in the backcourt where
the team possesses a trio of talented guards. Kelvin Bright is a dangerous
scorer, posting a team-high 11.4 ppg a season ago, but for him to reach the
next level the senior must shoot better than his 38.9 percent average. Next on
the docket is DeAndre Mays, who has turned into a strong point guard, and
should definitely build on his 10.7 ppg average from last season. However,
even though Mays did lead the team with 105 assists, he also has a tendency to
run cold with his shot, connecting on just 38.1 percent of his attempts last
season. The third guard in the mix is junior Vytas Sulskis, who chipped in
10.3 ppg a year ago. The frontcourt however, is a different story for YSU,
which returns only Sirlester Martin with any real experience. Martin was a
monster in the paint for the Penguins last season, netting a modest 9.6 ppg,
to go along with a team-high 7.3 rpg. However, for Martin to truly succeed,
other players will have to step up to take some pressure off of the senior.
LOYOLA-CHICAGO: The Ramblers stumbled through their second consecutive
losing season last year, but there is potential on the roster for a slight
improvement. The team was fortunate that forward Andy Polka was granted
another year of eligibility, giving the team a true presence in the
frontcourt. Polka was netting 7.5 ppg last year to go along with a team-high
5.5 rpg, but the senior suffered an ankle injury and missed 21 of the final 22
contests. Polka will be joined by sophomore forward Walter Gibler, who showed
he can definitely battle in the paint in limited action. Gibler only averaged
15.5 minutes per matchup, but was able to post modest numbers (4.7 ppg and 3.0
rpg). The true success of this team however, will lie on the shoulders of
another sophomore, Jordan Hicks. At 6-6, Hicks is an explosive guard that can
also play the forward position when needed. The Minnesota native improved
throughout the season last year, and his 41.5 percent shooting averaged from
long range is just one of many indications that he could be in line for a
breakout season. However, even if everything goes right for the Ramblers, this
team is not much more than a .500 club.
ILLNIOIS-CHICAGO: The Flames went into last season with a good amount of
hype and rightfully so, as the team possessed one of the best guard/forward
combos in the conference in Josh Mayo and Scott VanderMeer. However, the team
finished four games below .500 in league play and now Mayo and VanderMeer are
both gone. Coach Jimmy Collins is hoping a new combination will lead the way
for UIC, as Spencer Stewart and Robo Kreps will headline the team's backcourt.
Stewart only averaged 5.5 ppg a year ago, but the guard is a tremendous floor
general and finished second in the Horizon with 119 assists. He will likely
look to Kreps often this season, and that is never a bad thing considering the
junior guard connected on 40.6 percent of his three-point attempts, while
finishing second on the team with 12.3 ppg. With VanderMeer gone, the pressure
is now on Jimmy Buttell to be the dominant force in the paint. Buttell only
tallied 4.7 ppg last season, but the big, powerful forward was very active on
the glass, pulling down 5.6 rpg. If freshman center Louis Green (6-9, 240) can
step in and contribute instantly, the Flames would have a formidable duo down
low.
DETROIT: For the second straight season the Titans could only muster seven
victories, but this could be the year that Detroit finally takes a small
step forward. The Titans were abysmal at the offensive end of the floor last
year averaging just 56.5 ppg, but the return of Xavier Keeling should really
give Detroit a boost. The sophomore forward was pacing the team with 12.4 ppg
and 6.6 rpg after seven contests, but an injury left Keeling out for the
remainder of the year. With Keeling back and Indiana transfer Eli Holman
(6-10, 255 pounds) now eligible to play, the Titans have a dangerous one-two
punch in the frontcourt. The success of the backcourt will depend on the
growth of Eulis Stephens and Woody Payne. Payne did a solid job running the
show on the floor for Detroit, as the senior contributed 8.3 ppg, to go along
with team-highs in assists (107) and steals (66). As for Stephens, he posted
8.1 ppg a year ago, but the guard must improve on his 39.5 percent shooting
average. All in all the Titans should finish with double-digit victories, but
posting a .500 ledger may be too much to ask.
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