(WXYZ) - If you're like Bing Crosby and dreamin' of a white Christmas, you have two good choices:
1. Keep dreaming. Lots of interesting things can happen in dreams.
2. Plan to travel a little, but not too far if you go the right direction.
We in 7 First Alert Weather have been updating the percentage chances of a White Christmas since Monday, Dec. 10, and the chances have been between 10% and 20% the entire time, even though long-term averages put the odds closer to 50%. By the way, we define a "white Christmas" as one inch or more of snow on the ground at Metro Airport at dawn Christmas Day. Bing probably had a dreamier but more vague definition, but we are scientists after all.
As we watch a potent storm spin out of the Rockies today and start moving toward Michigan, we can tell you with great confidence that many areas in Michigan will get lots of snow and wind from this storm. Winter Storm Warnings are in effect for Thursday through Friday for a big chunk of the northwestern Lower Peninsula and the eastern half of the UP.
They could see a general 6"-8" snow with favored lake effect areas looking at up to a foot and a half before it winds down on Saturday. Even in places like Grand Rapids, the chance of several inches of snow, which will likely still be around for Christmas on Tuesday, is very good.
Here in metro Detroit, the storm will mainly bring us rain on Thursday before cold air rushes in on strong northwesterly winds Friday morning. That will give us a good chance to see snow showers, perhaps slippery roads (oh boy!) and a chance to use our snow brushes. But as of this writing (Wednesday morning), it doesn't look like a shoveling kind of snow. And whatever snow falls may melt (or sublimate) before we get to Tuesday. For now, it seems that Friday is our last chance for snow before Christmas, though one of our longer range computer models does bring in a storm on Christmas Day Tuesday that would probably brings us... rain.
I'll keep dreaming along with you. If only Bing Crosby could work two little words into that classic song... climate change.
Follow Chris Edwards on Twitter at twitter.com/edwardswxwxyz