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Why metro Detroit's fall weather outlook may surprise you

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Posted at 9:57 AM, Sep 23, 2017
and last updated 2017-09-25 11:52:25-04

Do we need a new calendar? It seems like the seasons don't "fall" they way they used to.

This is the first weekend of fall, but it actually feels hotter than much of the summer months ever did!

We only had four days of 90 degrees or higher all summer ( we average 11 ) and in this most recent heat wave we have flirted with that magical number and certainly could go above it this weekend and into early next week. We have a 90% chance to stay well above average highs through the weekend and into next week.

Even after a significant cool down at the end of next week, there still looks to be a lot of warmth left for at least the first half of fall. The warmth looks like it will come in shorter bursts than this current heat wave, however with cool downs in between those warm-ups.

We have been quite dry for the month of September. We are an inch and a half below average for rainfall this month. September is usually in the top half of our wetter months though and with more frequent transitions coming between warm and cool air, we should get more rain.

So looking at the entire three month periods of September through November, we are expecting a warmer than average fall and average rainfall in metro Detroit. There just isn't much strong evidence one way or another for the precipitation trend. Since we are starting dry and expected to finis the season with average rainfall you might want to invest in a new umbrella before October gets here.

So this means the shorts, flip flops, and t-shirts  should stay in the front part of the closet for quite a while yet. But don't forget that November is still considered fall and we average 1.5" of snow in that month!