After a nice and sunny weekend heavy rain's on the way to Metro Detroit. Look for things to kick off as early as Monday morning with scattered showers across the area for the drive to work. Eventually, by lunch time & during the drive home, more storms will flare up in the heat of the day as a cold front approaches and that's when the dynamics of the atmosphere get interesting.
The approaching front will stall out over southern Michigan serving as a lifting mechanism for storms, meanwhile a strong area of low pressure will be tracking just south of Michigan also producing active weather of its own. "That's a lot of energy in the atmosphere" and it's also combined with tropical moisture as the Muggy Meter spikes during the day on Monday. Unfortunately, all of this brings a heavy rain threat to the area to start the work week in the order of 2" - 4" of rainfall within a short period of time.
Notice the trend in the latest forecast with the heaviest rain south, then slowly lowering as you travel north.
Storm Track and some Good News
There's some good news in all of this and it involves the track of this storm system. Currently, the track is south of Metro Detroit and even though it doesn't remove us from the flood & heavy rain threat, it does reduce our severe weather risk. In fact, south of the border around areas like Indianapolis and Champaign, IL, there's an enhanced risk of severe weather where damaging winds, hail and tornadoes are possible. On a side note, some areas could use a healthy dose of rain since Metro Detroit has a few abnormally dry locations, according to the US Drought Monitor.
Make sure you have a way to get the latest warnings and flood updates, especially if you'll be out on the road Monday night and Tuesday morning.
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