Atlantic hurricane seasons averaged 12 named storms, 6 hurricanes, 3 major hurricanes. Most of those numbers have already been met or exceeded with Harvey and Irma hitting the United States with catastrophic results from flooding, storm surge, and wind damage.
Already two times this season we have had three named storms active at the same time. So what is going on?
The 2017 season was expected to be busy from the start. The first NOAA forecast put out on May 25th called for an above average season for total storms and major hurricanes.
Then NOAA doubled down in August and increased its forecast to be even more extreme. There are a number of reasons why this season has been so different from our most recent seasons. Check out the video to see the explanation.
All aspects of elements that would hinder or help the hurricanes season can be summed up by the Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE). This season it is in the range of 100%-170% of the normal amount. This means we should expect even more storms and those that form have a good chance to be longer lasting and stronger than normal.
All of the extra energy and higher frequency of storms so far this season is not the reason why the U.S. has been impacted so greatly. Of course, the more storms there are, the better chance we have of being hit, but that has more to do with the steering currents on a day to day basis once the the storms are near us. In other words, we have had some very bad luck this season so far. Let's hope our luck improves!