Models show Michigan could have 4th-largest COVID-19 death total by October

Posted at 2:47 PM, Jun 11, 2020
and last updated 2020-06-11 15:30:16-04

(WXYZ) — Models show that Michigan could have one of the highest death totals from COVID-19 in the U.S. by Oct. 1.

Related: IHME models show 2nd wave of COVID-19 beginning in US in September

The Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) said Thursday that a second wave of coronavirus deaths could begin in the U.S. in September, with nearly 170,000 deaths by Oct. 1.

Those models found that Michigan could also have the fourth-highest death total by Oct. 1, with a project 8,771 deaths, and a range from anywhere between 7,098 deaths and 14,743 deaths.

As of Thursday, 5,737 in Michigan have died from COVID-19, which is the fifth-most in the country.

New York is expected to have more than 32,000 deaths, the most in the U.S., followed by New Jersey with around 13,000 deaths and California just over 8,800 deaths.

“We’re now able to look ahead and see where states need to begin planning for a second wave of COVID-19,” said IHME Director Dr. Christopher Murray. “We hope to see our model proven wrong by the swift actions governments and individuals take to reduce transmission.”

The institute said nationwide deaths are predicted to stay level through August and then begin to rise just before September, but some states could see an earlier increase due to relaxed social distancing measures and more people moving around.

Those states right now are expected to be Arizona, Florida, Georgia, and Colorado.

“If the US is unable to check the growth in September, we could be facing worsening trends in October, November, and the following months if the pandemic, as we expect, follows pneumonia seasonality,” Dr. Murray said.

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