If it feels like you can't escape the political ads right now, there's a lot of money behind them. With Election Day here, campaigns are making their final push for your attention — and Michigan is at the center of that advertising blitz.
Royal Oak resident Nic Vantil and Oak Park resident Ervice Gregory are heading into Election Day from two different places. Vantil cast his ballot on the first day of early in-person voting, while Gregory is waiting for Tuesday.
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"I already voted, yep," Vantil said.
"I like to vote on voting day," Gregory said.
But both have noticed the same thing: the advertising blitz. When I asked Vantil if it felt overwhelming, he said the sheer volume has started to blend together.
"It is, but it's gotten to the point where there's so much, it's almost just white noise at this point," Vantil said.
That noise comes with a record price tag. According to AdImpact, more than $11 billion in political ads have already aired or been reserved nationwide this election cycle, making this the most expensive political advertising cycle on record.
When I asked whether last-minute ads actually work, Vantil and Gregory saw it differently.
"I know there's plenty of people that they are watching a Pistons game and they see a couple of ads and that's just in their head two days later. And I think it can affect things," Vantil said.
"I don't. I think people have chosen already," Gregory said.
Either way, there's a lot of money betting those messages still matter. AdImpact counted nearly $192 million in aired ads and future reservations for Michigan's U.S. Senate race as of Oct. 12.
Oakland University political science professor Dave Dulio says big money in politics is nothing new, but where that money is going is changing.
"There are fewer and fewer competitive seats. So when you take more money and put it into fewer races, you get almost a multiplier effect where it seems like there's even more and more coming in, say to a particular Senate race or House race," Dulio said.
I asked Dulio whether the math is as simple as the party that spends the most wins.
"Not always. Haley Stevens had more money spent on her side of the US Senate primary, and she didn't win. Hillary Clinton outspent Donald Trump in 2016, and she didn't win. Having the most money isn't a silver bullet. The candidate has to be of high quality. The message has to be of high quality," Dulio said.
And there's plenty at stake in Michigan, with voters deciding an open U.S. Senate seat, the race for governor and several competitive House seats.
When I asked whether last-minute spending is as effective as spending earlier in the cycle, Dulio pointed to what it signals.
"Money coming in at the last minute is an indicator that things are very competitive. And we're not going to have a candidate or its allied groups miss that opportunity to try to get a few more votes," Dulio said.
As for whether those last-minute ads can change a voter's mind, Dulio is doubtful.
"I'm skeptical of how many undecided voters there are," Dulio said.
Early in-person voting ends Sunday, and folks head to the polls on Nov. 3.
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