(WXYZ) — The latest forecast from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) suggests waters in the equatorial Pacific Ocean may reach 2.5°C above normal. This would mean the forecast of El Niño by the end of summer could potentially be a "super" El Niño.
A super El Niño is when temperatures in the equatorial Pacific Ocean are +2.0°C above normal. As the ocean waters in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean increase, they shift where storms develop in the tropics and impact atmospheric patterns across the world.
For Metro Detroit and the Midwest, El Niño usually brings drier weather and sometimes warmer temperatures, so a "super" El Niño could enhance this outlook. But our most noticeable impacts from the ENSO (El Niño Southern Oscillation) phases happen in the winter months, so we would likely not see much of an impact until then.
Typically, when ENSO is in the El Niño phase, the Pacific Jet Stream is strengthened and stays farther south across the United States. This drives more storms through the southern states, which helps drought-stricken areas and builds up the water supply for the next growing season. A "super" El Niño would potentially enhance the pattern and keep the Pacific Jet Stream over the southern half of the United States, without much wavering.
The El Niño phase could also greatly impact the Atlantic Hurricane Season, by reducing the number or strength of the storms. During this phase, winds and wind shear tend to be stronger over the Gulf of Mexico and the tropical Atlantic Ocean, which would hinder storm development. The winds essentially tear and storm development apart.
